Summary Table of Quotes
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price on June 19 | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 985.25 | -41.00 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 930.25 | -36.00 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 104.39 | -5.80 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 921.00 | -36.50 |
| Diesel and Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 922.75 | -69.00 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 924.75 | -74.00 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 910.25 | -72.25 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 107.12 | -14.11 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 113.48 | -13.74 |
| Jet Fuel | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 957.00 | -77.50 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 928.75 | -74.50 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 667.75 | -13.75 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 636.00 | -10.00 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 71.59 | -3.04 |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf ($/mt) | 599.41 | -31.32 |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 467.75 | -48.25 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 448.00 | -45.25 |
Regional Analytical Review
Northwestern Europe (NWE): The gasoline market experienced two opposing price movements. On Monday, prices slipped in line with crude oil futures; on Tuesday, they fell sharply following the announcement of the preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement, which raised expectations of passage through the Strait of Hormuz (August ICE Brent down $3.62/barrel to $79.55/barrel; NYMEX July down $4/barrel to $76.75/barrel). However, the physical market remained resilient: as spot prices fell, backwardation only intensified, indicating real demand for physical goods. By Wednesday, the RBOB–EBOB spread had reached a multi-year high (33.23 cents/gallon on June 16), reflecting tight supply in the U.S. ahead of the summer demand season (World Cup + Independence Day). Fuel inventories in PADD 1 rose by only 100,000 barrels to 56.8 million barrels, while the Gulf Coast lost 2 million barrels to 77.8 million barrels, with refinery utilization near capacity (10.076 million barrels/day). On Friday, Israeli strikes on Lebanon reignited doubts about the durability of the ceasefire—Eurobob FOB AR barge prices rebounded to $930.25/metric ton (+$37.50/metric ton for the day). The threat of a strike at the ExxonMobil refinery in Antwerp (negotiations broke down on June 18; consultations began on June 22; a possible shutdown could begin on June 27) added uncertainty regarding physical supply. Jet fuel stocks in the ARA region rose 2.2% week-over-week to 547 thousand metric tons; traders described the market as “well-supplied for the entire summer,” while jet crack spreads along the curve exceeded those for diesel, keeping refineries operating at maximum jet fuel production capacity.
Mediterranean (Med): The region felt the dual impact of Russian geopolitical risks. The Bulgarian Burgas Oil Refinery directed its volumes to cover the Black Sea deficit rather than to the broader Mediterranean basin—traders pointed to “strong demand from the Black Sea,” which kept Burgas shipments in the region. This reduced supplies to Med markets and sustained structural tightness in gasoline, although the overall price trend remained bearish. ULSD FOB Med lost $72.25/t over the course of the week. FOB Med jet fuel weakened by $74.50/t, and the market was described as “slightly oversupplied” amid moderate demand: airlines continue to optimize costs using AI. In the ARA distillates segment, gasoil and diesel inventories rose by 1.3% to 1.818 million metric tons—the first increase in four weeks, although the level remains 11.7% below last year’s figure. Traders attributed the high inventories to a combination of record output from local refineries and an influx of U.S. ULSD volumes.
Russia and the CIS: The topic of the week was systematic strikes by Ukrainian drones on oil refining infrastructure. On June 13–14, the “Temp” oil storage terminal in Yaroslavl (which stores gasoline and diesel) was attacked. On June 16, a strike hit the Moscow Oil Refinery, with a capacity of 240,000 barrels per day: one of the two primary refining units was damaged—the plant halted production and suspended sales on the St. Petersburg Mercantile Exchange. On June 18, a second drone strike on the same facility caused fires in the primary and secondary refining units and in the tank farm. According to aggregate estimates, by the end of May, approximately 25% of Russia’s refining capacity was offline. The market implications were twofold: on the one hand, support for European prices through a reduction in the supply of Russian petroleum products; on the other—a redistribution of trade flows (increased demand for crude oil from Brazil, which purchases it to produce naphtha-rich, high-ethanol gasoline).
West Africa (WAF): Demand in the region remained structurally supported. Gasoline shipments from NWE fell by 18.3% MoM as of June 18: Asian light petroleum products are increasingly being unloaded at WAF ports, displacing European exports. Maintenance of the RFCC unit at the Nigerian refinery remained a persistent fundamental factor, supporting the market premium. Nigerian import permits for the next shipment have not yet been issued, although two traders expected new licenses in the third quarter. On Friday, demand from Cameroon was reported: the offer for Limbe was $40/t over Eurobob July. Freight rates for UKC–WAF (37,000 t) fell to $36.19/t from $40.11/t on June 11. STS Lome quotes: gasoline $937.25/t, diesel $1,015/t.
Global factors: The week was shaped by the geopolitical pendulum in the Middle East. Tuesday’s announcement of a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement triggered a sharp drop in oil prices and raised expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, which led to a bearish trend in distillates and jet fuel. By Friday, the resumption of Israeli strikes on Lebanon had reignited uncertainty regarding transit and restored price support for gasoline. Against the backdrop of falling global prices, petrochemical demand for naphtha grew: sources noted the return of “pech” buyers after a period when flat prices had kept them on the sidelines. Approximately 50,000 metric tons of benzene were shipped from Asia to Europe for June–July to offset the price imbalance. Exports of petroleum products from China rebounded in May to 362,000 barrels per day (+12.1%), but gasoline shipments for January–May fell by 61.3% year-over-year, signaling a continued focus on the domestic market. Demand for naphtha from Brazil has grown significantly: high-ethanol Brazilian gasoline grades require a naphtha-rich blend, and disruptions in Russian production have further boosted this demand.