A preliminary memorandum between Washington and Tehran to end the four-month conflict has triggered a sharp decline in global crude benchmarks. Market participants remain cautious as a 60-day ceasefire begins, pending the removal of naval mines from the critical waterway.
Global market
According to international market price assessments, Brent crude fell 3% to $80.69 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate dropped to $78.27. This volatility followed the announcement by President Trump of a 14-point interim deal with Tehran to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint that typically handles 20% of global oil and LNG supply. In response to the de-escalation, Goldman Sachs analysts revised their fourth-quarter Brent forecast downward to $80 per barrel.
While the accord mandates toll-free passage for 60 days, significant logistical hurdles remain. Jotaro Tamura, the chief executive of the world’s largest tanker operator Mitsui OSK Lines, warned that shipping traffic may not normalize for a month as owners await the clearing of naval mines. Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, cautioned that the global energy system remains “in the hole” by 1.2 billion barrels and will require substantial time to reach equilibrium.
Russia & CIS
At the G7 summit in Evian, France, leaders agreed to intensify economic pressure on Moscow with fresh sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that over 600 vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet” are now being targeted to intercept illicit finance networks. In a major enforcement action, British forces recently seized the Smyrtos, a sanctioned tanker carrying 98,000 tonnes of Russian crude bound for India.
In the regional gas sector, US major ConocoPhillips is set to sign a contract with the Syrian government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa to revive production at existing fields. The deal is expected to lift output by up to 5 million cubic meters per day within a year. However, maritime security in the region remains fragile after the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich fired warning shots at a British yacht in the English Channel on Tuesday.
Armenia
No material changes to domestic fuel tariffs or natural gas delivery contracts were reported in Armenia on Wednesday. The republic continues to manage its energy security through the EAEU framework, which serves to buffer the internal market against the extreme price corrections observed in global benchmarks. The general retreat in Brent prices below the $81 mark is expected to contain inflationary pressure on refined products imported into the country.
The regional outlook for Armenia is influenced by the de-escalation between the US and Iran, which may stabilize southern transit corridors and enhance long-term fuel supply reliability. However, the G7’s commitment to tightening the energy blockade on Moscow could disrupt traditional supply chains within the CIS region. Analysts note that Armenia has recently repulsed Russian influence campaigns as Moscow’s regional leverage diminishes due to systemic failures in its own energy infrastructure.