The signing of a 14-point ceasefire memorandum between Washington and Tehran has triggered the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, ending a 106-day naval blockade. Global energy benchmarks retreated as traders anticipated the resumption of crude flows, although logistical hurdles and security risks continue to weigh on the market.
Global market
World oil prices fell following the agreement between President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to de-escalate the conflict. According to international market price assessments, Brent crude dropped to $79.46 per barrel, while the US benchmark WTI settled at $76.74. The accord mandates that Tehran allow toll-free passage for 60 days through the strait, which typically handles 20% of the world’s oil supply. The International Energy Agency predicts an oil glut of 8 million barrels per day next year if the peace holds and production capacity is restored.
Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, immediate supply restoration is hampered by 80 naval mines estimated to remain in shipping lanes. Vincent Clerc, the chief executive of the shipping giant Maersk, stated that the company will not resume transit until safety is fully guaranteed. Nevertheless, initial exports have begun, with two Iranian supertankers carrying a combined 3.8 million barrels of crude exiting the blockade zone. Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, cautioned that the global energy system remains “in the hole” by 1.2 billion barrels and will take significant time to reach equilibrium.
Russia & CIS
British Royal Marines seized the Smyrtos, a Russian shadow-fleet tanker carrying $40 million worth of crude oil, in the English Channel. UK officials confirmed the vessel was targeted for violating sanctions and lack of valid registration, leading to warnings of potential global retaliation from Moscow against British merchant ships. Tension in European waters was further underscored when a Russian frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich, fired warning shots near a British pleasure yacht south of the Isle of Wight.
The regional energy sector also faces mounting digital threats. Richard Horne, the chief executive of the UK National Cyber Security Centre, reported that critical infrastructure, including power stations and refineries, was hit by over 200 cyber-attacks in the past year. Horne identified state-linked assailants from Russia and Iran as being behind three-quarters of these incidents. Experts anticipate that the emergence of advanced artificial intelligence tools will further accelerate these threats by 2028.
Armenia
No material changes to domestic fuel or natural gas prices were recorded in Armenia today, though the country remains heavily impacted by regional trade disruptions. The European Commission is finalizing an emergency trade relief package to help Armenia offset Russian import curbs on food and beverages, which are estimated to cost the country €420 million annually. These Russian bans, targeting products like wine and mineral water, are viewed by Brussels as political pressure following recent elections.
While Armenia’s membership in the EAEU ensures a degree of stability in fuel supply, it also grants Moscow significant leverage over the republic’s imports and exports. The recent drop in global oil prices below $80 per barrel is expected to provide some relief to the domestic economy by containing inflationary pressure on imported petroleum products. Richard Giragosian, the founder of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, noted that while EU support is a vital “stopgap,” it is not yet enough to fully counter Russia’s long-term dominance in the Armenian trade balance.