The signing of a 14-point preliminary memorandum between the US and Iran has initiated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day ceasefire. This diplomatic breakthrough has triggered a sharp retreat in global energy benchmarks as the market anticipates the resumption of critical supply flows.
Global market
World oil prices fell significantly following the agreement between President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to lift the naval blockade. According to international market price assessments, Brent crude dropped to $77.48 per barrel, while the US benchmark WTI settled at $74.63. The reopening of the waterway is expected to release approximately 160 million barrels of crude that Kpler, a commodity data provider, estimates are currently idling in the region.
The refined products sector also saw a dramatic correction, with the north-west European jet fuel benchmark sinking to $957 a tonne, a nearly 50% decline from its April peak. While shipping traffic through the strait increased on Friday morning, Amaar Khan, the European head of jet fuel pricing for Argus Media, warned that logistical delays and mine-clearing operations could still impede a full recovery of seaborne exports. Despite the 60-day fee-free period mandated by the deal, shipping executives remain concerned that Tehran may eventually implement “maritime service” tolls.
Russia & CIS
Energy infrastructure in Russia suffered its most significant disruption of the conflict as Ukraine launched nearly 200 drones in a massive strike against the Moscow Refinery in Kapotnya. The resulting fires have severely impacted fuel-production capacity, prompting leading Russian retail chains to implement nationwide limits on petrol sales. Strict fuel rationing has also been introduced across the Crimea region as Ukrainian forces continue to target supply lines.
In the legal arena, the GML structure representing former Yukos shareholders has secured the final right to pursue $50 billion in Russian state assets after all appeals were exhausted in October 2025. Simultaneously, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed that the Royal Navy successfully seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker in the English Channel. This operation comes as European allies seek to increase pressure on Moscow’s “export of chaos” despite the ongoing de-escalation in the Gulf.
Armenia
No material changes to domestic fuel tariffs or natural gas delivery contracts were reported in Armenia for the current period. The republic continues to navigate regional energy stability through its membership in the EAEU, which serves to buffer the economy against the extreme volatility of global crude prices. Observers note that Armenia has successfully repulsed Russian influence campaigns, a trend accelerating as Moscow’s regional energy leverage wanes due to systemic infrastructure failures.
The potential reopening of southern transport corridors following the Trump-Iran memorandum is expected to enhance Armenia’s energy security and transit options. On the broader sustainability front, Murat Kurum, the Turkish successor for the UN COP31 climate talks, has proposed that nations set a voluntary goal for electricity to meet 35% of global energy demand by 2035. This initiative may inform future discussions regarding the modernization of Armenia’s energy mix and the role of its nuclear facilities.