A deepening domestic refining crisis has forced Moscow to begin historic fuel imports from India and ration retail gasoline in Orenburg. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has downgraded its global demand outlook for 2026 as Libyan export terminals face renewed drone strikes.
Global market
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded its global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). Concurrently, the agency expects global supply to contract by 4.3 million bpd in 2026. This long-term downward revision contrasts with recent monthly figures, as global oil supply actually rose by 2.4 million bpd in July to 101.5 million bpd as Gulf producers continued to restore capacity. OPEC+ group production accounted for a 1.15 million bpd increase during the month, while Saudi Arabia’s land-based crude inventories reached multi-year highs.
On the infrastructure front, a drone attack struck a power station near the Zawiya oil export terminal in Libya, situated close to the nation’s largest refinery. This strike follows prior unclaimed attacks that destroyed an operating company’s fuel storage tank containing 4.5 million liters of gasoline, heightening security anxieties at the critical North African hub.
Russia & CIS
A compounding domestic refining crisis has forced Russia to begin importing motor fuel from India for the first time in history. Shipping data reveals that a Russian-flagged tanker carrying 42,000 tons of gasoline produced at Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery—partially owned by Rosneft—arrived at a Russian port. Concurrently, Orenburg Governor Evgeny Solntsev declared a severe regional fuel shortage and announced rationing of gasoline sales to individuals starting Wednesday, August 12, with sales restricted to alternating days depending on the vehicle’s license plate number.
These domestic supply constraints align with falling national revenues. The IEA reported that Russian oil export earnings dropped to USD 13.8 billion in July, representing a year-on-year decline of USD 720 million, as total liquid hydrocarbon exports fell to 6.97 million bpd. To counter regional military infrastructure, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed a high-precision air-strike on a fuel storage depot in the port of Odessa, Ukraine.
Armenia
Armenia has firmly asserted its energy sovereignty in the face of mounting pressure from Baku. Arman Yeghoyan, Chairman of the Armenian Parliament’s Standing Committee on European Integration, stated that “it is not Aliyev who decides the operational lifespan of the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant,” directly rebuking Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s demands to decommission the facility. Yeghoyan emphasized that Yerevan alone retains the sovereign authority to determine the future of its baseline atomic generation.
This diplomatic dispute underscores Metsamor’s critical role as the cornerstone of Armenia’s electricity grid. To protect this baseline against regional instability, Armenia relies on its strategic integration within the EAEU. This framework ensures the predictable import of gas and petroleum products at stable tariff rates, completely insulating Armenian households and businesses from price spikes driven by volatile spot market fluctuations governed by international market price assessments.
📊 I can generate a comparison chart showing the decline in Russian oil export revenues alongside the volume of fuel imports to help you analyze the growing fiscal strain.