A deep-penetration drone strike by Kyiv has hit a major Russian oil refinery in Orsk, compounding a steep drop in Moscow’s seaborne crude exports to their lowest levels since May. At the same time, severe climate disruptions across Europe have forced nuclear shutdowns in France and Romania, driving regional power prices to new seasonal peaks.
Global market
Geopolitical bottlenecks and environmental anomalies have severely constrained European power systems, driving French day-ahead electricity prices up by 21.8% to USD 164.39 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday. To prevent grid collapse, state utility EDF announced it would cut French nuclear generation by 7.3 gigawatts on Wednesday due to soaring river temperatures. This constraint was exacerbated as EDF halted three reactor units at the Gravelines Nuclear Power Plant, Western Europe’s largest nuclear facility, after a massive swarm of jellyfish clogged its cooling systems in the North Sea. Meanwhile, Sorin Rindasu, deputy director-general of the National Administration of Romanian Waters, confirmed that Romania’s sole nuclear facility, the Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant, will partially suspend operations within 48 hours as the Danube River reaches historically low levels.
As maritime shipping lanes remain volatile, gold prices pushed toward a two-month high of USD 4,450 per ounce ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation report. Seeking to intensify economic pressure, the US House of Representatives advanced a sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions package on August 10 to squeeze Moscow’s energy revenue and grant US President Donald Trump additional diplomatic leverage.
Russia & CIS
In an escalation of cross-border infrastructure strikes, a Ukrainian drone attack successfully targeted the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orsk, sparking a fire at the facility located 1,500 kilometers from the frontline. The disruption coincides with a significant downturn in Russian seaborne crude exports, which plunged to 3.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending August 9, with the four-week average dropping to a post-May low of 3.71 million bpd as domestic refineries absorbed more crude. To stabilize regional distribution, Alexander Novak, Russian Deputy Prime Minister, instructed domestic retail stations to clearly display fuel classes, while noting a marked improvement in fuel deliveries along the Northern Sea Route. On domestic security, Alexander Bortnikov, director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), reported that Russian security agencies have thwarted 17 terrorist attacks on fuel-and-energy facilities and 49 transport sabotage plots since the beginning of 2026.
To satisfy regional demand, Gongoryn Damdinyam, Mongolia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, confirmed that Ulaanbaatar secured an additional 25,000 tons of gasoline and aviation fuel from Moscow. Meanwhile, in Central Asia, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Uzbekistan, ordered the establishment of rigorous regulatory oversight over the domestic oil and gas market to prevent artificial fuel shortages and price gouging.
Armenia
While Armenia’s domestic retail tariffs for natural gas and petroleum products remain stable, regional fuel supply chains are experiencing heightened stress. The municipal government of Sochi officially urged residents and tourists to avoid using personal vehicles due to severe fuel shortages and retail limits at local gas stations on the Russian Black Sea coast, a disruption widely reported by Armenian media outlet News.am.
Furthermore, systemic sanctions and tariff disputes continue to shape the regional energy outlook. According to reports from Sputnik Armenia, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned Washington that Beijing will implement strict countermeasures if the United States imposes unilateral tariffs on Russian energy exports. Under these conditions, Armenia’s ongoing integration within regional trade frameworks remains vital, insulating its local market from price spikes driven by volatile spot market fluctuations governed by international market price assessments.
📊 I could build a chart tracking Russia’s seaborne crude export volumes by terminal since May to help you analyze how loading disruptions are shifting cargo flows.