OPEC’s crude oil production expanded in July as Middle Eastern producers restored capacity previously sidelined by shipping bottlenecks, even as tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz slumped on Monday. At the same time, severe local fuel supply constraints forced Russian resort cities to restrict retail gasoline sales, while Armenian policymakers ruled out an exit from the Eurasian Economic Union.
Global market
Total oil production across the 11-member OPEC group rose by 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd) in July to reach 19.85 million bpd. This recovery marks the second consecutive month of output expansion, driven by Gulf nations restarting fields that were shut down during the three-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, traffic through the vital shipping channel continues to degrade due to stalled negotiations between the US and Iran, with only six commodity vessels transiting the strait on Monday, August 10, compared to a 10-day average of 11. Despite these shipping bottlenecks, independent “teapot” refiners in China are expected to increase purchases of Iranian crude in August after inventories in Shandong Province plummeted to their lowest levels this year following a major stockpile drawdown.
In corporate energy developments, Germany’s state-backed utility Uniper reported that its adjusted first-half 2026 net income more than doubled to USD 448 million (EUR 388 million) from USD 156 million in the same period of 2025, buoyed by strong performance in its gas division as Berlin advances privatization plans. Conversely, in the power sector, French state utility EDF was forced to shut down three reactors at its largest nuclear power plant following an unprecedented influx of jellyfish clogging the cooling systems.
Russia & CIS
In Russia, retail fuel supply bottlenecks have intensified, prompting the municipal government of Sochi to officially urge residents and tourists to avoid using personal transport due to severe fuel restrictions at local retail stations. To curb domestic market speculation and secure supply, Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev confirmed that Moscow has extended the reduced 10% gasoline sales quota on commodity exchanges until December 31, 2026. This policy extension coincides with regulatory crackdowns by the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), which identified retail price-gouging violations across Khakassia, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Zaporizhzhia, and Krasnodar Krai.
Further complicating the domestic market, Moscow-based fuel trader “Algoritm Toplivny Integrator” filed an 8.9 billion ruble lawsuit in the Moscow Region Arbitration Court against a subsidiary of retail operator EuroTrans. On the trade front, Mongolian Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Gongoryn Damdinyam concluded an agreement with Moscow to increase imports of Russian gasoline and aviation fuel to support Mongolia’s domestic demand.
Armenia
Sargis Khandanyan, an Armenian Member of Parliament and representative of the ruling party, declared that a referendum on exiting the EAEU will not take place in the near future, emphasizing that the cabinet has no such proposal on its agenda. This statement directly counters demands from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, who stated that the EAEU expects Yerevan to schedule a nationwide referendum by December 2026 to choose between pursuing EU integration or retaining its EAEU membership.
On resource diversification, MP Sargis Khandanyan noted that a future transit pipeline built under the TRIPP project could provide Armenia with an alternative gas supply route, and did not rule out the possibility of direct natural gas imports from Azerbaijan once bilateral relations are normalized. For now, Armenia’s continued integration within the EAEU continues to safeguard local fuel and gas imports under stable bilateral agreements, protecting domestic consumers from price spikes driven by volatile spot markets governed by fluctuating international market price assessments.
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