As the United States cements its dominance in global liquefied natural gas exports, shifting maritime routes continue to suppress Middle Eastern crude flows. Simultaneously, unprecedented European sanctions on regional processing facilities are reshaping logistical corridors across the Caucasus.
Global market
The United States has solidified its position as a global energy superpower, supplying approximately 93% of the world’s additional liquefied natural gas exports in 2025. Overall American export volumes soared to 5.2 trillion cubic feet, filling the void left by disrupted supply chains elsewhere and cementing its status as the top global provider.
Meanwhile, the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait pushed Brent and WTI benchmarks up by $10 per barrel over the week. The maritime crisis is severely impacting regional producers, with Saudi Arabia seeing its crude exports through the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea plummet by 41% to 2.39 million barrels per day since its March peak. Despite these security threats, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company issued its seventh crude tender since early June, attempting to secure sales between August and October.
Russia & CIS
To protect domestic supply, the Russian government is actively considering a reduction in the mandatory exchange sale quota for gasoline down to 2%, while potentially factoring targeted corporate deals into this requirement. Central Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina confirmed that the internal fuel market is gradually normalizing, noting that temporary increases in gasoline imports will not significantly pressure the national currency exchange rate.
Domestic companies are displaying financial resilience amid the shifts, with Russneft reporting a first-half net profit of 12.68 billion rubles under Russian accounting standards. Abroad, former Ernst & Young energy executive Attila Szagodi was appointed as the new director overseeing the Russian-designed Paks II nuclear power plant project in Hungary.
Armenia
The European Union has officially imposed strict sanctions against the only operating refinery in neighboring Georgia for continuing its procurement of Russian oil. For Armenia, the penalization of this critical regional processing asset severely limits local fuel diversification options, heightening the republic’s dependence on secure supply quotas within the EAEU.
While a slight correction in global oil benchmarks—with Brent crude edging down to $97.91 per barrel—temporarily cools international market price assessments for independent importers, broader trade relations face new frictions. Effective July 27, Russian regulatory authorities will enforce restrictions on the import of Armenian dairy products, complicating the macroeconomic environment just as the republic requires robust trade flows to offset regional energy volatility.