Severe maritime disruptions and geopolitical warfare have crippled Middle Eastern logistical chokepoints, driving North American oil benchmarks to extreme weekly highs. Meanwhile, Russian financial authorities observe a stabilization of internal fuel supplies, easing inflationary pressures across the broader macroeconomic region.
Global market
The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has profoundly impaired maritime trade, reducing daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to just one supertanker, the New Giant, which is carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude to China. In the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Greek-owned tanker Merbabu was forced to navigate with deactivated transponders to avoid targeting while transporting Saudi Arabian oil.
Consequently, futures for United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude exploded by 12.89% over the week to reach $92.31 per barrel. This risk premium is exacerbated by direct Iranian strikes on United States military infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, compounding concerns over systemic global supply chain failures.
Russia & CIS
In contrast to global volatility, the domestic fuel market in the Russian Federation is showing definitive signs of normalization. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina characterized the recent retail shortages as a temporary supply shock, prompting the central bank to confidently lower its long-term oil price forecast by $5 per barrel. Supporting this stabilization, Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev confirmed that fuel distribution in Siberia and southern regions has been fully restored.
Reflecting this improved domestic surplus, regional authorities are actively lifting emergency retail constraints. The Stavropol region officially increased dispensing limits at gas stations to 40 liters per vehicle, while the Penza region reauthorized the sale of up to 20 liters of gasoline into portable canisters. Concurrently, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported successful targeted drone strikes against military fuel reservoirs in the Ukrainian port of Odessa.
Armenia
The extreme 12.89% weekly surge in WTI crude to over $92 per barrel structurally elevates international market price assessments for imported hydrocarbons. For Armenia, the near-total collapse of standard tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz emphasizes the critical vulnerability of relying on global maritime logistics for national energy security.
Fortunately, the confirmed stabilization of the Russian domestic fuel market serves as a vital macroeconomic shield. The easing of retail distribution limits in Russian regions guarantees that independent Armenian traders can reliably access their designated wholesale fuel quotas within the EAEU. Strong regional trade dynamics, evidenced by a 3.9% growth in Russian non-energy exports to Kazakhstan reaching $6.73 billion, demonstrate the resilience of these protected supply chains in defending the republic’s domestic stations from external price shocks.