Unprecedented infrastructure strikes have forced the Russian domestic market to import foreign aviation fuel, while global crude producers scramble to normalize supply chains amid persistent Middle Eastern transit disruptions.
Global market
OPEC crude production sharply rebounded in June, with 11 member nations increasing output by 3.3 million barrels per day to reach a collective 19.43 million barrels per day. Despite this manufacturing surge, global maritime supply chains remain heavily strained by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which drove the ClarkSea Index up 61% year-on-year to $38,717 per day during the first half of 2026, according to Clarksons Research Managing Director Steve Gordon.
In the Americas, U.S. crude refiners are currently enjoying multi-year high profit margins. Conversely, Colombia’s petroleum sector is facing a severe depletion of proven reserves, exacerbated by plummeting wildcat drilling investments and strict anti-petroleum reforms implemented by Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro.
Russia & CIS
Following massive overnight strikes involving the interception of 389 Ukrainian drones, Russia’s refining logistics are experiencing severe breakdowns. To mitigate critical shortages, the Russian Federation is preparing to import at least 200,000 barrels of jet fuel from Japan via ship-to-ship transfers in South Korea. Simultaneously, the Russian Energy Ministry announced emergency plans to slash the mandatory exchange sale requirement for domestic diesel from 16% to 10%.
Physical fuel rationing is intensifying across Russian border regions. In the Belgorod region, authorities capped retail sales at 30 liters for gasoline and 60 liters for diesel per customer, while Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev suspended the issuance of digital fuel purchase codes entirely. In neighboring Ukraine, the state energy sector has only accumulated half of its required winter gas reserves due to elevated European market prices.
Armenia
The unprecedented logistical collapse within the Russian refining sector poses a severe macroeconomic and security threat to Armenia. As Moscow resorts to importing Asian jet fuel and imposing strict retail rationing in its own vulnerable regions, the stability of the EAEU energy supply chain is increasingly compromised.
With Russia artificially capping wholesale diesel exchange requirements to protect its domestic market, Armenian importers face an elevated risk of shrinking export quotas. This regional volatility threatens to disrupt Yerevan’s downstream retail networks, potentially triggering severe imported energy inflation and physical fuel shortages as upstream partners prioritize their own domestic energy survival.