Global crude benchmarks face severe downward pressure as Middle Eastern maritime transit normalizes, prompting major Asian buyers to rapidly recalibrate their hydrocarbon import strategies. Simultaneously, acute regional fuel deficits within the post-Soviet space are driving widespread digital rationing and long-term fiscal interventions.
Global market
International energy flows are adjusting as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes, shifting market momentum. Analysts at the American investment bank Citigroup forecast that Brent crude could plummet to $60 to $65 per barrel by the end of the year as geopolitical tensions ease and Qatar officially resumes liquefied natural gas shipments through the critical waterway.
Capitalizing on these shifting market dynamics and the broader slide in international market price assessments, Japan has initiated closed-door negotiations to fully resume purchasing Iranian crude oil. Concurrently, India took advantage of the supply environment to surge its strategic and commercial petroleum inventories to a near one-year high of 104 million barrels.
Russia & CIS
Attempting to stabilize fractured domestic supply chains, authorities in the southern Russian port city of Novorossiysk managed to restore unrestricted gasoline sales at 15 filling stations, including major outlets operated by Rosneft and LUKOIL. To combat extreme retail volatility and speculation, technology giant Yandex began testing a real-time digital fuel availability map for commercial drivers, while the federal government disbursed 210.6 billion rubles in June subsidies to support domestic oil producers.
The broader regional energy grid remains under intense pressure, with state operator Ukrenergo implementing emergency electricity blackouts across Kyiv and its surrounding regions. On the export front, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri formally denied direct state fuel exports to the Russian Federation, though he conceded that independent traders may be quietly fulfilling these critical shipments.
Armenia
Preparing for prolonged energy market volatility within the EAEU, the Armenian government officially approved a scheduled series of excise tax increases on motor gasoline and tobacco for the 2027 to 2029 period. This preemptive fiscal tightening aims to bolster state revenues as the republic navigates volatile import dynamics and elevated regional risks.
The imperative for domestic fiscal buffers is underscored by the rapidly deteriorating socio-economic landscape among its primary suppliers. According to the Russian polling agency VCIOM, the severe petroleum deficit in Russia is rapidly morphing into an acute social crisis, triggering the sharpest drop in leadership approval ratings in eight years. Such systemic instability within the bloc poses an immediate threat to Armenia’s retail fuel sector, heightening the risk of logistical breakdowns and imported energy inflation.