Price Summary
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1024.25 | +70.50 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 971.75 | +70.50 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 95.24 | -3.25 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 929.75 | +25.00 |
| Diesel & Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 954.25 | +58.50 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 969.00 | +68.75 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 955.00 | +69.25 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 108.62 | +3.93 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 114.98 | +3.38 |
| Jet | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 978.75 | +66.50 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 951.25 | +67.25 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 652.25 | +25.00 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 621.25 | +25.75 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 70.88 | +3.34 |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf ($/mt) | 582.44 | +24.21 |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 407.50 | +3.25 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 390.00 | +4.25 |
Regional Market Review
Northwest Europe (NWE)
This week has been one of the most tense for the European gasoline market since the start of the summer season. Gasoline stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell by 7.4% to 940,000 metric tons—the lowest level since late September 2024. Against the backdrop of an acute spot shortage, the Eurobob E5 cash/M1 spread spiked: at the start of the week, it was at moderate levels; by Wednesday, it reached $96/metric ton; and by Friday, it stood at $110/metric ton, signaling deep backwardation and a critical shortage of petroleum products in the first half of July.
At the same time, the situation in the blending components market has sharply deteriorated. MTBE shipments from Asia ceased—there were no new shipments from China in June—which pushed the MTBE FOB ARA premium over Eurobob futures to nearly $207/metric ton, a weekly increase of more than $107/metric ton. Transatlantic arbitrage remained wide open; the export-oriented barge-based Eurobob E10 traded with a fluctuating spread against E5—ranging from a premium of +$11.50/metric ton at the start of the week to a discount of $26.75/metric ton by the end, — reflecting an imbalance in the availability of oxygen-containing components. At the close of trading on Friday, the front-month FOB ARA Eurobob swap settled at $861.75/t, while the August/September backwardation widened to $50/t.
Crude oil inventories in the ARA region fell by 5.9% over the week to 420,000 metric tons, driven by active blending. The CIF NWE crude crack spread remained negative (around –$3.88/bbl on Friday), while the physical market was supported by restarts at several European crude crackers. Midweek, low water levels on the Rhine—around 90 cm at the key Kaub lock—created additional logistical challenges for barge transport.
Mediterranean (Med)
The Mediterranean market also remained in a state of severe shortage throughout the week. Egypt’s state-owned oil company (EGPC) issued a tender to purchase 647,000 metric tons of 95 RON gasoline for delivery in July, confirming strong demand in the region. The M1/M2 FOB Med spread widened to $40.50/metric ton, indicating expected tightness at least through the end of the month. Mediterranean refinery operators, working near capacity limits, noted an increased risk of unplanned outages due to the abnormal summer heat. The FOB Med Premium Unleaded price ended the week at $929.75/t.
Russia & CIS
Russia’s domestic market was experiencing a growing fuel shortage caused by a wave of drone attacks on oil refineries. As an emergency measure, the government authorized the sale of gasoline and diesel fuel meeting the Euro-3 standard instead of Euro-5. Long lines and fuel purchase limits at gas stations across the country have become a common sight.
The shortage has spread to neighboring regions. The Kyrgyz Association of Oil Traders reported a significant reduction in shipments of RON-95 and RON-98 gasoline from Russia; Tajikistan saw sharp price spikes. In response, the Eurasian Economic Union extended the zero import duty regime on gasoline, diesel fuel, and petroleum products until the end of June 2027, thereby acknowledging the systemic nature of the shortage.
West Africa (WAF)
Crude oil shipments from Iraq via the Persian Gulf rose significantly in June: according to shipping data, crude oil exports more than doubled—from 39,000 bpd in May to 96,000 bpd in June—following the normalization of traffic in the region. This influx supported oil supply on the global market and influenced the dynamics of the East–West spread.
Global Factors
A key feature of the week was the sharp divergence between the price movements of crude oil and refined products. The Dated Brent physical spread fell to a discount of $1.07/bbl relative to the forward strip—its lowest level since the COVID-19 period; the oversupply of crude in the Atlantic Basin offset the entire price impact of the recent escalation in the Middle East, and the Brent CFD curve remained in contango. Against this backdrop, gasoline crack spreads continued to rise regardless of oil price movements, reaching multi-year highs.
Data from the U.S. Department of Energy confirmed sustained summer demand: gasoline stocks on the East Coast (PADD 1) fell by 0.8 million bbl to 57.2 million bbl for the week ending June 26. The East-West crude oil spread rose sharply toward the end of the week: the August contract reached $40.5/metric ton by Friday amid expectations of a decline in crude oil production in China — market participants anticipated that Chinese refineries would shift to maximizing gasoline output ahead of a possible easing of restrictions on gasoline exports.