The Russian government has authorized the sale of lower-grade gasoline to mitigate severe domestic shortages, while global oil benchmarks face downward pressure despite impending production hikes.
Global market
Financial institution OCBC Group downgraded its Brent crude forecast for the third quarter of 2026 to $75 per barrel, citing normalized tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these bearish indicators, the seven-member OPEC+ coalition is preparing to increase production quotas by an additional 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day in August.
Meanwhile, Iran is aggressively maximizing its oil exports during a specially negotiated 60-day diplomatic window with the United States, rapidly narrowing its crude discounts. Concurrently, Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude, traded on the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi exchange, is displacing older international market price assessments for Dubai benchmarks to capture Asian market share by removing destination restrictions.
Russia & CIS
To combat an acute domestic motor fuel deficit, the Russian government passed an emergency decree permitting the sale of lower-grade Euro-3 gasoline until the end of the year, despite it violating EAEU technical regulations. Additionally, the cabinet temporarily slashed the mandatory exchange sale requirement for premium Euro-5 gasoline to 10% until September 30. Central Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina noted that the regulator is closely monitoring these wholesale fuel shocks for secondary inflationary effects.
The localized retail crisis is prompting extraordinary physical enforcement measures. At filling stations in Anapa, municipal administration staff and volunteers are actively patrolling to prevent consumers from hoarding fuel in canisters. In the Krasnodar region, energy infrastructure sustained further damage when intercepted drone debris struck a local gas pipeline and power transmission lines in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
Armenia
Amidst the severe destabilization of EAEU fuel supplies, Yerevan is attempting to balance its macroeconomic alliances. An Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister announced that a new duty-free export regime with the European Union, functionally similar to the GSP+ mechanism, will not legally obstruct the republic’s ongoing membership in the EAEU.
However, the nation’s structural vulnerability to Russian supply shocks remains absolute. Armenian political expert Sarkisyan emphasized that there is currently no viable alternative to Russia for the country’s energy and food security, noting that Moscow maintained its position as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier of critical commodities to the republic throughout 2025.