Global crude benchmarks tumbled to multi-month lows as a preliminary de-escalation between the United States and Iran restored maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, Russia is preparing to import gasoline from Kazakhstan and India following devastating strikes on its domestic refining capacity.
Global market
Brent crude for August delivery fell to $74.76 per barrel, its lowest level since February, while WTI dipped below $71 per barrel. This market cooling follows a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which has prompted oil tankers to resume broadcasting their positions in the Persian Gulf. Arsenio Dominguez, the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), officially welcomed the diplomatic progress, though the rush to secure Persian Gulf cargoes drove VLCC tanker rates to a record $470,000 per day.
In the United States, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a crude inventory draw of 6.1 million barrels, leaving commercial stockpiles 7% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, Gautam Adani, the Chairman of the Adani Group, announced a 10 GW nuclear power target for India by 2035 as the country opens its civil nuclear sector to private investment. Additionally, Qatar confirmed that a fatal explosion at the Ras Laffan complex would not impact its long-term LNG export capacity.
Russia & CIS
The Moscow Refinery, operated by Gazprom Neft, is expected to remain offline until 2027 after sustaining critical structural damage from drone strikes. To mitigate domestic shortages, Russia is planning to import 50,000 tons of gasoline from Kazakhstan and has already begun purchasing fuel from India. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has mandated priority fuel deliveries to regions with complex logistics, while the State Duma passed a law allowing the blending of components to expedite high-octane gasoline production.
Despite reports of fuel rationing in some regions, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that significant price spikes are limited to independent filling stations. In the Kursk region, Governor Alexander Khinshtein ordered the removal of fuel purchase limits for residents in evacuated municipalities. Nevertheless, market pressure remains evident as Gazprom shares continue to trade near historical lows at the 100-ruble mark.
Armenia
President Vahagn Khachaturyan met with Mesrop Mesropyan, the Chairman of the Public Services Regulatory Commission, to discuss the stability of Armenia’s energy policy and internal market security. To support ongoing reforms, Armenia signed a credit agreement with the OPEC Fund under the “Economic Transformation of Armenia” program. This agreement aims to strengthen the national economy against external energy shocks and regional volatility.
Addressing the country’s strategic alignment, Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary for the Russian President, emphasized that the benefits of EAEU membership for Armenia outweigh other integration options. However, as Russia shifts toward importing gasoline from non-EAEU states like India, Armenian authorities face potential logistical challenges in maintaining stable fuel supplies and pricing within the union’s framework.