Moscow is evaluating a complete prohibition on diesel exports to stabilize its domestic market following persistent refinery disruptions and supply shortages. Meanwhile, Washington and Tehran reached a critical agreement to unblock frozen assets, signaling a tentative recovery for maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf.
Global market
The United States and Iran have reportedly reached an agreement to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds, according to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator. This diplomatic progress follows a 60-day sanctions waiver that has encouraged oil tankers to emerge from “dark mode” and broadcast their positions while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Jotaro Tamura, the President and CEO of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, stated in an interview with an organization providing international market price assessments that it would take approximately one month for regular navigation to fully stabilize.
In other energy developments, Qatar officially announced that a recent explosion at the Ras Laffan industrial complex, which resulted in 13 fatalities, will not impact its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity. Meanwhile, in Alaska, the Pikka oil project successfully reached continuous production, delivering 20,000 barrels per day.
Russia & CIS
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak informed President Vladimir Putin that the government is considering a full ban on diesel exports to counter rising prices and infrastructure damage. To prevent a domestic fuel crisis, regional authorities have already implemented rationing; in the Vologda region, Lukoil filling stations have limited sales to 30 liters of gasoline and 60 liters of diesel per vehicle. Similar restrictions were reported in the Belgorod and Tyumen regions to curb panic buying.
The Russian energy sector faces further pressure as Gazprom shares plummeted to near 100 rubles, marking their lowest level since 2008. In response to logistical challenges, the fuel transport limit for private vehicles on the Crimean Bridge was increased from 100 to 200 liters on Tuesday to ease supply bottlenecks for the peninsula.
Armenia
The regional energy landscape is shifting after the US Department of the Treasury issued a license permitting transactions involving Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products until August 21, 2026. This 60-day window offers Armenia a legal framework to potentially expand its energy imports from its southern neighbor. Domestically, the Armenian Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures, led by Minister David Khudatyan, held talks with Turkish Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Abdulkadir Uraloglu regarding the restoration of regional transport links.
Local safety concerns were raised in the Armavir region following a collision between a train and a truck transporting fuel, which resulted in one hospitalization. Furthermore, analysts warn that any definitive Russian export ban on diesel could significantly destabilize fuel prices and supply security within the EAEU framework.