The resumption of maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz following a preliminary agreement between Washington and Tehran has triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices. Simultaneously, Russia faces worsening domestic fuel shortages and rationing, particularly in Crimea, following sustained strikes on its energy infrastructure.
Global market
US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed an initial 14-point Memorandum of Understanding, opening an extendable 60-day negotiation window to finalize a peace deal. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is now open for shipping, allowing Iran to immediately dispatch three supertankers carrying 6 million barrels of crude. Consequently, Brent crude prices fell to $78.99 per barrel, while European natural gas rose 1.75% to $49.04 per MWh due to a regional heatwave and an industrial explosion at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal that killed 13 people. Jotaro Tamura, President and CEO of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, told an organization providing international market price assessments that it may take one month for regular navigation to fully stabilize.
Russia & CIS
Authorities in occupied Crimea have suspended fuel sales to private individuals, limiting supplies strictly to state agencies as Ukrainian drone strikes continue to disrupt refineries. In Sevastopol, Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev ordered the preparation of emergency refueling plans for diesel generators, while panic buying led to a 150% surge in gasoline demand in the Nizhny Novgorod region. On the Moscow Exchange, Gazprom shares fell below 100 rubles for the first time since 2008, reflecting broader market pressure. Amid these disruptions, Alexey Likhachev, the head of Rosatom, reported that repairs to the second power line at the Zaporizhzhia NPP have been completed.
Armenia
The regional trade outlook is shifting after the US Department of the Treasury issued a license valid until August 21, 2026, permitting transactions involving the import and transport of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products. This 60-day window provides a temporary legal framework for energy cooperation as the Russian Foreign Ministry concurrently urged Yerevan to choose between its alignment with the EAEU and the European Union. While global oil prices soften, Armenia remains exposed to logistics volatility within the EAEU as Russia grapples with internal fuel rationing and a growing deficit of aviation and automotive gasoline.