Tehran has warned it will halt Middle East energy flows if Washington fails to honor its bilateral commitments, as regional volatility forces major exporters like Iraq to institutionalize alternative transit routes. Global powers are simultaneously tightening supply chains for critical minerals to reduce dependence on China while infrastructure attacks continue to disrupt the Black Sea and Siberian energy hubs.
Global market
Mohammad Mokhber, advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, declared that Tehran is prepared to completely stop energy supplies from the Middle East if the memorandum of understanding with the United States remains “only on paper”. While Indian Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways Sarbananda Sonowal confirmed the successful passage of three tankers—Desh Vaibhav, Desh Vibhor, and Sanmar Herald—through the Strait of Hormuz, the market remains fragile. Consequently, Iraq has confirmed it will maintain its crude oil and naphtha export route via the Syrian port of Baniyas as a permanent strategic backup regardless of the strait’s status.
At the G7 summit in Evian, France, world leaders established a strategic alliance to challenge China’s dominance in the critical minerals sector, focusing on resources essential for the defense and clean energy industries. In the renewable sector, Terje Pilskog, CEO of Scatec, announced that a new solar and battery project in Egypt could save the nation $400 million annually by displacing liquefied natural gas imports. Meanwhile, China has launched the world’s first wind-powered underwater data center off the coast of Shanghai with an investment of $238 million.
Russia & CIS
Russian energy infrastructure suffered fresh disruptions as a UAV attack ignited an oil terminal in the village of Chushka, Krasnodar Krai, while an attempted strike on the Tyumen refinery forced a total personnel evacuation. The Zaporizhzhia NPP experienced its 20th total external power loss since the start of the conflict due to the failure of the Ferrosplavnaya-1 line, leading to a complete blackout across 14 districts in the Kherson region.
On the regulatory front, German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche announced EU demands for Turkey to exclude Russian gas from new European supply contracts. Despite this pressure, the Slovakian state utility SPP has entered negotiations for Russian gas supplies for 2027, arguing that a total ban fails to provide a genuine diversification of international market price assessments. In Tehran, Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad identified the oil sector as the nation’s top investment priority, signaling readiness for major new contracts.
Armenia
The regional energy environment for Armenia is being reshaped by Kazakhstan’s decision to implement stricter border controls to prevent the illegal export of fuel, a measure likely to influence the balance of petroleum products within the EAEU. A former US Energy Secretary noted that a potential US-Iran deal remains a critical catalyst for restarting the regional economy, which would have significant long-term implications for the energy stability of the South Caucasus.
Strategic risks for Armenia also stem from European efforts to block Russian gas transit through Turkey, potentially affecting the feasibility of future regional gas hub projects. Additionally, the recurring infrastructure failures at the Zaporizhzhia NPP underscore the systemic fragility of interconnected regional electricity grids, highlighting the persistent vulnerability of the broader energy security framework surrounding the Armenian market.