Price Summary
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1004.25 | -118.25 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 949.25 | -118.25 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 101.17 | -13.64 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1020.50 | -56.75 |
| Diesel & Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1189.25 | -153.75 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 1206.50 | -199.25 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1187.75 | -198.75 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 137.07 | -16.88 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 143.55 | -16.83 |
| Jet | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1175.75 | -176.00 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1140.25 | -174.75 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 694.50 | -101.00 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 653.75 | -99.75 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 79.22 | -15.37 |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf ($/mt) | 629.86 | -119.13 |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 492.00 | -19.00 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 461.75 | -19.50 |
Региональный анализ рынка
Northwest Europe (NWE)
The region’s gasoline market experienced sharp volatility: on Monday, Eurobob physical barges were trading at $974.25/t, by Tuesday they had fallen to $920.75/t—a monthly low—and by Thursday had rebounded to $949.25/t. Over the course of five trading sessions, the weekly decline totaled $118.25/metric ton. The shortage of oxygenates for blending remained a critical constraint: the MTBE premium over Eurobob futures held steady at $363.25/t—a high not seen since November 2023— — making oxy-blending economically unfeasible. Gasoline stocks in the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp hub plummeted by 18.8% over the week to 797,000 metric tons—the lowest level since October 2021. Logistics were further hampered by record-low water levels on the Rhine: at the critical chokepoint near Kaub, the water level dropped to 19 cm, forcing barges to operate at 15–20% capacity amid a sharp rise in freight rates. According to available data, four tankers carrying a total of 145,000 metric tons of MTBE, loaded in China between July 3 and 19, are expected to arrive in Northwestern Europe in the second half of August through early September, which should partially alleviate the oxygenate shortage.
Mediterranean (Med)
The region saw the sharpest decline in diesel fuel prices: ULSD CIF Med quotes fell by $199.25/t over the week, dropping to $1,206.50/t. Physical demand for gasoline, however, remained steady: consumption in Spain, Italy, and Greece was described by market participants as “fairly high” amid a record-breaking tourist season; a Spanish national distributor recorded a historic peak in gasoline deliveries in July—804,000 cubic meters (603,000 metric tons). Tensions in the region were mounting for several reasons: Russian volumes were being redirected outside the Mediterranean, disruptions to exports via the CPC pipeline were limiting the feedstock supply to local refineries, and supplies from the Arabian Peninsula were rerouted through Cyprus for re-export to North Africa and Sudan. Significant gasoline flows from the ARA region to the Mediterranean and North Africa put additional pressure on stocks in NWE. By the end of the week, the August FOB Med spread against FOB ARA barges held steady near a $13/metric ton premium, reflecting ongoing regional tensions.
Russia & CIS
The Russian oil refining industry has come under direct attack: On August 6, it was reported that the Ukrainian armed forces had carried out attacks on the Yaroslavnefteorgsintez (YANOS) oil refinery and “Novoil”. The governor of the Yaroslavl Region confirmed that debris had struck the YANOS tank farm and that a fire had broken out. The attacks on these two major refining facilities increase the risk of a reduction in the supply of petroleum products from Russia in the second half of August, although it was not possible to assess the full extent of the operational consequences within a week. At the same time, disruptions to oil shipments via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminals in the Black Sea persisted, continuing to affect trade flows in the region. According to market participants, Russian gasoline was actively being withdrawn from the Mediterranean, further tightening the basin’s supply-demand balance.
West Africa (WAF)
At the start of the week, the transatlantic arbitrage market remained virtually closed: neither the U.S. nor the West African market showed significant demand for European gasoline volumes. The situation began to change following the release of EIA statistics: gasoline inventories on the U.S. East Coast (PADD 1) fell by 600,000 barrels to 52.2 million barrels during the week ending July 31 — 8.5% below last year’s level — as a result of a decline in net production by refineries and blenders of 309,000 barrels per day to 17.15 million barrels per day In response, the September RBOB–EBOB spread rose by 26.7% to 12.95 cents per gallon, signaling a possible reopening of the arbitrage window. According to available data, East African markets were experiencing difficulties in sourcing cargo. Freight rates on the UKC–USAC route for MR tankers (37,000 metric tons) stabilized at $21.64/metric ton, posing no obstacles to arbitrage calculations as the price spread normalized.
Global Factors
The defining geopolitical story of the week remained the U.S.-Iran negotiations on the status of the Strait of Hormuz: statements by officials regarding the possibility of a near-term agreement put downward pressure on the market from Monday through Wednesday, while the lack of concrete agreements and ongoing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait prevented prices from falling further. CIF NWE naphtha lost $101/metric ton over the week, falling to $694.50/metric ton: petrochemical demand remained weak due to logistical constraints on the Rhine and seasonal lull, while the naphtha-to-crude crack spread remained in negative territory. CIF NWE jet fuel fell by $176/metric ton to $1,175.75/metric ton, reflecting overall market volatility. In petrochemicals, the August ethylene contract in Europe settled at €1,487.50/mt—€42.50/mt higher than in July—after four rounds of negotiations; the August propylene contract had closed earlier at €1,420/metric ton (+€55/metric ton compared to July). Overall, the market remained in “wait-and-see” mode: high backwardation made it difficult to plan shipments, and any developments in the diplomatic situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could drastically alter the price environment.