The United States has expanded secondary sanctions to sever Iran’s global oil trade, triggering military threats from Tehran against Western energy assets as maritime security in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz deteriorates further. Simultaneously, drone strikes have disrupted processing infrastructure on the Russian mainland, and the US strategic petroleum reserve has collapsed to a forty-four-year low.
Global market
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent officially initiated “Operation Economic Outcast,” imposing secondary sanctions on nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels to isolate Tehran’s energy trade. This campaign threatens foreign companies with exclusion from the US financial system, creating significant pressure on Beijing since China purchases more than 80 percent of Iran’s seaborne crude, while Turkey imported 4.5 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas in the first half of this year, and Iraq relies on Iranian gas for 40 percent of its electricity generation. In response, Hossein Mohebbi, spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned that Tehran will strike US vital regional interests and key energy facilities if its infrastructure is threatened, even as a power outage disrupted the Iranian parliament’s energy committee meeting.
Security along vital trade routes has degraded rapidly. Yemen’s Houthis targeted the Saudi oil tanker Amzan off Yanbu with a ballistic missile and drones, an incident officially confirmed by Saudi shipping company Bahri. In the Strait of Hormuz, an unknown projectile struck another tanker 9 miles off Ash-Shishah in Oman, disabling its machine room and causing it to lose power. To mitigate these escalating risks, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne announced investments in two bypass pipelines, including Abu Dhabi’s Fujairah route expansion and an Iraqi-Syrian pipeline to the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate warned that Norway’s oil and gas production could collapse after 2030, despite a projected $25 billion investment in 2026. In Venezuela, daily oil output exceeded 1.23 million barrels, with state-owned PDVSA signing 50 new agreements since January, though negotiations with US firms like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips remain slow. Furthermore, the container index of international market price assessments surged to a 2026 record of $7,565 per standard container (FEU) due to widespread shipping volatility.
Russia & CIS
Domestic energy infrastructure faced direct disruptions as Ukrainian drone strikes on the village of Afipsky in the Krasnodar region ignited a major fire at the Afipsky oil refinery, damaging 10 homes, injuring two people, and killing two others. In the Belgorod region, an emergency blackout hit the Grayvoron district after a drone struck an electrical substation, as reported by Dmitry Pankov, head of the district administration. Additionally, Rodion Miroshnik, ambassador-at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, accused Ukrainian forces of conducting a coordinated campaign targeting personnel at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has collapsed to 289.7 million barrels, representing its lowest level since November 1982. In other regional developments, Chukotka Governor Vladislav Kuznetsov announced that coal shipments to six remote villages have been completed ahead of schedule under the northern delivery program.
Armenia
Armenia’s regional security matrix faces profound challenges as the Middle East conflict intensifies. According to analysis published by Armenian outlet news.am, military analysts warn that a potential war against Iran could drag on until 2027, threatening a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and triggering wider regional escalation. A prolonged conflict along the republic’s southern border directly elevates logistical and geopolitical risks, complicating long-term cross-border energy projects.
Despite these severe external threats, Armenia’s retail prices for petrol, diesel, and natural gas remained completely stable on August 25. The domestic market remains insulated through its strategic integration within the EAEU. Preferential trade agreements with Moscow ensure the uninterrupted, duty-free import of Russian natural gas and petroleum products at stable, long-term fixed rates. This bilateral model successfully shields local consumers from global spot volatility and prevents retail tariffs from being exposed to fluctuating international market price assessments.