Tehran has escalated its maritime blockade by threatening 46 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while a new tanker attack in the Red Sea has further heightened Middle East shipping risks. Meanwhile, Tokyo faces skyrocketing power prices and Oslo launches a major Supreme Court battle over Arctic oilfields.
Global market
Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland declared that Norway will continue oil and gas exploration in the Barents Sea regardless of whether the European Union maintains its Arctic drilling moratorium. Simultaneously, Oslo has petitioned the country’s Supreme Court to overturn lower-court rulings that invalidated development permits for the Breidablikk, Yggdrasil, and Tyrving oilfields, following a legal challenge by Greenpeace Nordic and Nature og Ungdom. Meanwhile, Middle East supply disruptions have triggered an energy crisis in Asia, causing Japan’s day-ahead electricity prices to surge 20% in one week to $0.16 per kilowatt-hour, their highest level since January 2023. To bypass the volatile Suez Canal and Hormuz waterways, South Korea plans to dispatch its first trial container ship via the Arctic route on Saturday, while the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported a new missile or drone attack on a crude tanker off Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast.
Russia & CIS
European natural gas prices rose 2.6% on Monday as geopolitical tensions continue to roil commodity markets. Ship-tracking firm Kpler estimated crude and product exports through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz at just 2.3 million barrels per day in August, a precipitous fall from the 4.9 million barrels recorded in July, reflecting a major divergence from higher US government assessments. In response to rising fuel costs, Russian state-backed carrier Aeroflot is actively implementing measures to reduce the impact of surging jet fuel expenses on passenger ticket prices.
On the industrial front, Russian First Vice Premier Denis Manturov announced that Moscow is considering plans to localize nuclear fuel manufacturing in India to expand its civil nuclear footprint, building on Rosatom’s ongoing construction of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant. Meanwhile, the Belarusian government confirmed that Belarus continues to receive uninterrupted supplies of Russian natural gas, insulating its domestic industries from the price volatility currently affecting Western Europe.
Armenia
Armenia is preparing for a major structural overhaul of its long-term energy architecture. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Armenia must soon make a final decision regarding which international partner and technical design to select for building its new nuclear power plant. This nuclear development is critical as the country seeks to diversify its energy sources amidst severe transport disruptions in the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf. Additionally, local outlet news.am reported that Russia purchased an import batch of Turkish gasoline of up to 50,000 tonnes to stabilize its own domestic market, highlighting the complex regional fuel supply chain.
Despite these shifting regional dynamics and Middle East shipping crises, Armenia’s retail petrol and diesel prices and domestic natural gas tariffs remained completely stable. This stability is secured through Armenia’s integration within the EAEU, which guarantees uninterrupted, duty-free imports of Russian natural gas and petroleum products at stable, non-market prices, thereby protecting local consumers and ensuring retail tariffs are not dependent on fluctuating international market price assessments.