China’s oil imports surged by 22 percent in July as the country added 200,000 barrels per day to its stockpiles, even as domestic retail sales and industrial output fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, Western Europe’s fuel distribution networks face major bottlenecks as water levels on the Rhine River hit a record low.
Global market
China’s oil imports surged by 22 percent in July compared to the previous year, even as key economic indicators fell short of forecasts. China’s retail sales grew by just 0.6 percent in July, well below the estimated 1.5 percent growth, while industrial output rose by 4.5 percent. Despite the economic slowdown and the ongoing shipping crisis, Beijing managed to inject an estimated 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude into its massive reserves, which totaled 1.4 billion barrels at the onset of the conflict. Supported by these dynamics and regional security concerns, Brent crude traded near 90 dollars per barrel.
In Europe, fuel supply chains face severe disruptions as water levels at the critical Kaub chokepoint on the Rhine River plummeted below 10 centimeters on August 14, making the vital trade artery virtually unnavigable. Concurrently, UK natural gas prices surged above 154 pence per therm on Monday, marking a fresh three-week high due to persistent LNG shipping disruptions. In contrast, continental European gas prices slipped to 734 dollars per thousand cubic meters, while French electricity costs climbed to their highest levels since January 2025. On the exploration front, US energy giant Chevron announced the discovery of new oil and gas condensate deposits on the offshore shelf of Angola.
Russia & CIS
In Eastern Europe’s transit corridors, Slovakia has officially increased tariffs for the transit of Russian natural gas through its territory. This move comes as Ukraine’s fuel and heating sectors face mounting crises. Ukrainian fuel market specialist Kuyun revealed that the ongoing blockade of Black Sea ports has cost Kyiv 30 percent of its fuel import supplies. Warning of a severe winter energy deficit, Ukrainian energy expert Ignatyev projected that indoor temperatures in Kyiv apartments could plunge to 10 degrees Celsius this winter.
Within Russia, the domestic stock market experienced a slowdown, with the Moscow Exchange Index struggling to sustain the 2,100-point threshold as the support from rising oil prices and a weaker ruble begins to fade. On a positive note, local administrations in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug confirmed that nearly all remote settlements in the region have been fully supplied with seasonal fuel ahead of the upcoming winter.
Armenia
Armenia’s high economic activity is driving transport demand, with official data showing that Armenia has become the EAEU leader in the growth rates of both cargo and passenger transportation. However, this rapid expansion significantly elevates the country’s domestic demand for stable motor fuel and refined petroleum products. With regional fuel logistics squeezed by the 30 percent drop in Ukrainian fuel imports and transit tariff increases in Eastern Europe, securing stable supply lines is critical for Yerevan.
To protect its fast-growing transport sector, Armenia relies heavily on its integration within the EAEU. Bilateral energy agreements with Moscow guarantee the uninterrupted and tariff-exempt import of Russian natural gas and refined petroleum products at fixed, non-market rates. This framework successfully insulates Armenian businesses and consumers from extreme price swings on European spot markets—where gas prices fluctuated at 734 dollars per thousand cubic meters—and shields the domestic market from volatile international market price assessments.
📊 I can prepare a visual comparison showing how the drop in the Rhine’s water levels correlates with the rise in European energy prices to help you evaluate the growing logistical constraints.