Middle East oil exporters have implemented a secretive shuttle shipping network to bypass the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, driving record profits for global oil majors. Meanwhile, Europe’s energy insecurity intensifies as gas storage levels hit a 17-year low ahead of the winter heating season.
Global market
As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, Middle East oil exporters have established a clandestine shuttle transportation scheme utilizing tankers with disabled transponders to transfer crude to larger vessels in the Gulf of Oman. This disruption has allowed eight of the largest global oil majors to reap a 93 billion dollar windfall profit in the first half of the year. While US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed Middle East oil exports rebounded to 15 million barrels per day (bpd), commodity analysts and ship-tracking data indicate that actual flows are at best half of that volume. Amid this standoff, US President Donald Trump asserted complete naval control over the waterway, while Iran announced plans to introduce a transit toll system after reactivating its western terminal on Kharg Island on August 12.
Meanwhile, European energy security faces critical headwinds as natural gas inventories have fallen to their lowest level in 17 years with less than three months before the heating season begins. High summer temperatures are exacerbating the crisis, with Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar warning that a continuing decline in the Danube River’s water levels could force the shutdown of the penultimate turbine at the Paks nuclear power plant. In transit technology, Malaysia’s Port of Tanjung Pelepas commissioned the country’s first fleet of 21 electric prime movers from Terberg to accelerate maritime decarbonization.
Russia & CIS
Russia’s domestic retail fuel market is experiencing significant price growth, with average retail prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline rising 7.4 percent since the beginning of the year to 67.03 rubles and 72.14 rubles per liter respectively, while diesel prices jumped 12.1 percent to 86.85 rubles per liter. Market analysts warn of severe fuel shortages in September due to scheduled seasonal maintenance at major Russian refineries and Belarus’s 12 million ton-per-year Novopolotsk refinery (Naftan). This domestic supply strain has also prompted cybersecurity firm F6 to warn of a wave of phishing scams offering fake bank-sponsored fuel vouchers to steal personal card details.
On the international trade front, Moscow is expanding its energy footprint in Asia. Thailand’s Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow announced that Bangkok is actively considering importing Russian energy resources from the Sakhalin-2 project to bolster its national energy security. Additionally, transportation bottlenecks eased slightly as local authorities lifted temporary flight restrictions at the Nizhny Novgorod airport.
Armenia
While Armenia reported no direct energy supply disruptions on August 17, the country remains highly vulnerable to the escalating regional trade strains. The impending September refinery maintenance at Russia’s main plants and Belarus’s Naftan refinery, combined with the 7.4 percent rise in Russian gasoline prices, could soon translate into tighter wholesale fuel supplies for Yerevan. Moreover, the clandestine shuttle tanker operations in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s proposed maritime transit tolls complicate the vital trade routing connecting Armenia to Persian Gulf markets.
To insulate the domestic market from these supply-chain vulnerabilities, Armenia relies on its strategic integration within the EAEU. Strategic bilateral agreements with Moscow guarantee the uninterrupted, tariff-free import of natural gas and refined petroleum products at fixed, non-market rates. This system successfully shields local consumers and businesses from global spot market volatility, which is governed by highly unstable international market price assessments.
📊 I can prepare a comprehensive visual dashboard tracking the decline in European underground gas storage to help you analyze how these historic lows might affect fuel pricing as winter approaches.