Beijing has partially relaxed its fuel export restrictions to help alleviate a deepening global supply crunch, releasing millions of tons of refined petroleum products. At the same time, escalating maritime strikes in the Red Sea and mounting physical threats to infrastructure continue to disrupt international energy logistics.
Global market
To combat a deepening international supply crunch, China has partially lifted its fuel export restrictions, granting state and private refiners quotas to export 2.7 million tons of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel this month. This temporary export liberalization comes even as the State Grid Corporation of China reported that intense summer heatwaves have pushed electricity loads to all-time highs across northern, northeastern, and eastern regions of the country.
Meanwhile, physical security risks across key maritime corridors remain severe. Yemen’s Houthis, represented by military spokesperson Yahya Saree, launched ballistic missiles at the Saudi oil tanker Wafa in the northern Red Sea, marking the eighth Saudi vessel targeted since the group declared its maritime blockade. Furthermore, Italian utility Edison confirmed that QatarEnergy extended its force majeure to 24 shipments through September after a second Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier, the GasLog Shanghai, was struck by a projectile leaving the Strait of Hormuz. These persistent regional hostilities continue to restrict fuel oil inflows, forcing Singapore and Malaysia to recommend VLSFO bunkering lead times of 12 to 24 days.
Russia & CIS
To ensure stability amid ongoing supply-chain disruptions, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak instructed government agencies to maintain active coordination to secure the domestic fuel market. The physical vulnerability of local distribution systems was highlighted in Rostov-on-Don, where Mayor Aleksandr Skryabin confirmed a massive fire at an auto-filling station that destroyed 20 vehicles and an administrative building. Concurrently, Russian forces conducted targeted overnight strikes in Kyiv, destroying a major fuel and lubricants depot used for military and dual-use supply chains.
In neighboring energy sectors, Serbian oil company NIS announced it would distribute 23,000 tons of petroleum products to third-party networks to mitigate local shortages. Additionally, Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar announced plans to finalize testing and initiate the test launch of the first unit of the Russian-built Akkuyu NPP by the end of this year.
Armenia
Strategic energy debates in Armenia have intensified following reports by the Russian business daily Kommersant, which highlighted potential linkages between Armenian freshwater exports and the expansion of the joint gas-for-electricity barter project with Iran. Securing and expanding such bilateral initiatives is increasingly vital to insulate Armenia’s utility sector from volatile international market price assessments.
These discussions unfold alongside escalating regional geopolitical risks. In Iran, political calls to completely cut off Azerbaijani oil shipments transiting to Israel threaten to disrupt wider South Caucasian transit logistics. For Armenia, these shifting dynamics underscore the absolute priority of maintaining secure energy corridors, particularly as Turkey’s impending launch of the Akkuyu NPP prepares to alter the regional electricity generation balance.
📊 I can compile a data-driven map tracking recent tanker strikes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to help you visualize the shifting risk zones for maritime energy transit.