The European Commission has pledged to pursue a complete, indefinite ban on Russian energy imports, even as global benchmark Brent crude plummeted below $79 per barrel. Meanwhile, Russia is stepping up domestic price regulations and introducing diesel import subsidies to stabilize its internal fuel market.
Global market
On London’s ICE Futures exchange, October contracts for Brent crude crashed by 6.03%, falling below $79 per barrel for the first time since July 13. This sharp sell-off occurred as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hit a two-month low. To bypass this critical chokepoint, Indian state-run refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) acquired 2 million barrels of Nigerian Okwuibome and Utapate crude from commodity trader Glencore to supply its upcoming Rajasthan refinery.
Concurrently, British energy giant BP, under the leadership of Chief Executive Officer Meg O’Neill, announced the sale of its US biogas business Archaea. The company originally acquired Archaea for $4.1 billion in 2022, but underperformance prompted a strategic retreat to focus on core oil and gas products. Additionally, the US Department of Defense canceled a tender to purchase up to $300 million of lithium carbonate for its national strategic stockpile.
Russia & CIS
Russia’s Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) significantly intensified regulatory pressure on the domestic fuel market, initiating 37 antitrust cases and issuing 59 warnings to market participants in 2026. To keep domestic supplies stable, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a federal law authorizing state subsidies for diesel imports, which will compensate fuel importers for the price differential between domestic and foreign markets. These moves coincide with localized supply pressures, such as in the Orenburg region, where fuel demand spiked 1.4 times in July 2026 compared to the previous year, prompting increased shipments.
Physical infrastructure risks also rose as a severe fire broke out at an industrial site in Perm, burning an 800-square-meter area after a cooling system failure ignited a diesel fuel tank. Near the conflict lines, Russian President Vladimir Putin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Alexander Yakovlev, the chief engineer of the Zaporizhzhia NPP who was killed in a drone strike. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, First Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Energy Committee Oleksiy Kucherenko warned citizens to prepare for a brutal winter by stockpiling water and firewood.
Armenia
The collapse of global Brent crude prices below $79 per barrel provides temporary macroeconomic relief for energy-importing nations in the South Caucasus. However, the European Union’s aggressive push to permanently ban all Russian energy imports will inevitably accelerate the redirection of Moscow’s export volumes toward friendly partners within the EAEU. For Armenia, maintaining stable bilateral energy quotas within the EAEU framework remains a vital shield against volatile international market price assessments for natural gas and refined fuels. Furthermore, the tragic death of Zaporizhzhia NPP’s chief engineer and warnings of a severe winter energy crisis across Eastern Europe underscore the absolute strategic priority of ensuring the physical security and uninterrupted baseload generation of Armenia’s own nuclear power plant.