As geopolitical flashpoints deter major Asian buyers from purchasing Middle Eastern crude, Eurasian governments are increasingly resorting to strict administrative controls to curb domestic fuel shortages.
Global market
China recorded a massive 41.3% year-over-year plunge in crude oil imports for June, driven down to a decade-low of 29.27 million tons (or 7.12 million barrels per day) due to soaring geopolitical premiums in the Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, the regional conflict widened significantly as the Iran-backed Houthi group launched ballistic missiles and drone strikes directly into Saudi Arabia.
In the corporate sector, major energy producers are rapidly reassessing their transition strategies. British multinational BP announced it expects to write down an additional $1 billion from its low-carbon assets in the second quarter, mirroring moves by Shell, which recently sold its Indian green energy business for $1.8 billion.
Russia & CIS
Domestic retail fuel inflation has triggered direct administrative intervention within the Russian Federation. The Federal Antimonopoly Service issued formal warnings to 14 fuel enterprises across five regions, while Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin publicly declared the central bank cannot ignore the rapid price inflation at local gas stations.
Physical supply disruptions are severely worsening the domestic energy balance. A coordinated drone attack sparked a major fire at the Afipsky refinery in the Krasnodar region and struck another major gasoline producer in Bashkortostan. Seeking to protect its own fragile domestic market from these cascading deficits, the Kyrgyz government officially enacted a complete ban on all fuel exports.
Armenia
The tightening regulatory environment and accelerating physical infrastructure degradation across the EAEU present direct macroeconomic risks to Armenia. The total ban on fuel exports by Kyrgyzstan and aggressive retail price interventions by the Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service highlight severe, systemic regional deficits that threaten member states.
As Yerevan remains structurally dependent on its northern partners for motor fuel quotas, sustained military strikes on key processing facilities like the Afipsky refinery and those in Bashkortostan critically endanger its supply security. These compounding logistical bottlenecks, combined with elevated international market price assessments for crude, will inevitably force Armenian importers to absorb substantially higher wholesale costs in upcoming contracts.