The sudden reinstatement of a maritime blockade in the Middle East has triggered a dramatic surge in global crude prices and disrupted vital shipping lanes. Simultaneously, severe infrastructure degradation in Eurasia has driven domestic petroleum processing to historic lows, forcing regional authorities to strictly ration retail fuel.
Global market
Following an announcement by United States President Donald Trump reinstating a maritime blockade on Iran, international commodity markets experienced severe volatility. The resulting supply chain panic drove Brent crude futures up by 9.6% to surpass $83.3 per barrel, while the American WTI benchmark surged past $77. Furthermore, European natural gas prices accelerated their daily growth to 7% as fears of prolonged transit disruptions intensified.
Despite the pricing rally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) downgraded its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the third consecutive month, reducing expected growth by 190,000 barrels per day to 780,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, American fuel producers are capturing unprecedented windfall profits from the crisis, with the benchmark 3-2-1 crack spread in the United States climbing above $60 per barrel to record highs.
Russia & CIS
Systematic drone strikes continue to devastate domestic energy infrastructure, with a recent night attack causing a major fire at the Afipsky refinery in the Krasnodar region. These escalating physical disruptions have caused overall Russian oil refining volumes to collapse to their lowest levels since 2005. In response to acute physical shortages, Kursk region governor Alexander Khinshtein announced that local gas stations will strictly ration fuel sales based on vehicle license plates starting July 15, while facilities in the Leningrad region have begun dispensing gasoline into small canisters to manage dwindling inventories.
On the corporate and diplomatic fronts, Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev traveled to Iran to negotiate joint strategic initiatives in the natural gas and electricity sectors. Concurrently, the state-owned pipeline monopoly Transneft successfully recovered over 17 million rubles in a legal dispute with the IT firm Citrix.
Armenia
The catastrophic collapse of Russian petroleum refining to 2005 levels presents an unprecedented structural threat to Armenia’s domestic fuel security. The implementation of extreme retail rationing protocols, such as restricting gasoline sales by vehicle license plates in neighboring regions, highlights a profound supply crisis within Yerevan’s primary EAEU trading partner.
These severe logistical disruptions are directly compounded by escalating international market price assessments, with global Brent crude surging past $83 per barrel following the renewed American blockade in the Middle East. For the republic, the combination of inflated international benchmarks and collapsing Eurasian refining capacity will inevitably trigger a sharp increase in wholesale import costs, driving up retail prices for motor fuel across Armenian gas stations.