Global crude benchmarks have recorded their steepest quarterly decline since 2020, even as maritime transit normalizes and Asian demand surges. Simultaneously, the potential for new Russian export embargoes threatens to severely disrupt regional petroleum supplies across the post-Soviet space.
Global market
Global markets concluded the second quarter with a massive downturn, as Brent crude futures plummeted by 38.4% and WTI fell by 31.4%, marking the sharpest contraction since the pandemic. Despite this bearish macro environment, commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to pre-war volumes. This normalized transit enabled Iran to successfully export over 40 million barrels of crude following the removal of the United States blockade.
In Asia, India established a historic procurement record in June by importing 5 million barrels per day of crude oil. Russian supplies formed the backbone of this influx, doubling over four months to reach 2.6 million barrels per day, which now accounts for 54% of New Delhi’s total national requirements. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute reported that commercial crude inventories in the US dropped by another 6.072 million barrels.
Russia & CIS
Domestic fuel markets in the Russian Federation face escalating price pressures, highlighted by Belarusian AI-92 gasoline surging 6% to 127,000 rubles per ton at wholesale auctions. Following a near 1.8-fold price increase since early May, trading volumes jumped to 6.54 thousand tons. To ease local distribution bottlenecks, Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev officially canceled the restrictive QR-code rationing system for filling stations starting July 1.
In the natural gas sector, European benchmark prices grew by 11% over the first half of the year, peaking at $515 per 1,000 cubic meters, despite a minor 6.2% pullback in June. Looking eastward, Mongolian Trade Representative to the Russian Federation Ninj Demberel stated that Ulaanbaatar expects significant progress regarding the Power of Siberia 2 export pipeline project between Moscow and Beijing during the upcoming Eastern Economic Forum.
Armenia
Armenia’s energy sector is bracing for severe logistical shocks following recent statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding a potential absolute ban on diesel fuel exports. Domestic industry experts warn that such a stringent measure could practically paralyze the continuous supply of petroleum products into the republic under the established EAEU quotas.
The situation for Armenian importers is further aggravated by the rampant wholesale inflation within the economic bloc, specifically the near doubling of Belarusian gasoline prices in the Russian market. However, the historic collapse in global Brent prices and the normalization of Middle Eastern maritime transit offer Yerevan a theoretical window to urgently explore alternative procurement channels and secure its national energy balance against imported inflation.