The Russian government has officially initiated talks to import petroleum products to combat an escalating domestic crisis that has fueled a rampant black market. Meanwhile, major financial institutions are sharply downgrading their global crude price projections as Middle Eastern maritime traffic tentatively resumes.
Global market
Despite recent volatility, international investment banks are anticipating a supply glut as transit through the Strait of Hormuz slowly recovers to 24 vessels a day. Morgan Stanley analysts have consequently slashed their third-quarter Brent crude forecast to $75 per barrel, though SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop contested this assessment, arguing that a fair market price remains between $80 and $90 per barrel. Anticipating a normalized Middle Eastern supply, Asian refiners are already redirecting their surplus regional crude cargoes to the US West Coast.
In a major geopolitical shift, Gulf states including Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have commenced direct regional security negotiations with Iran, deliberately excluding the United States. Simultaneously, the European Union will implement a new trade agreement with Washington on July 1, committing the bloc to purchase $750 billion in American energy resources by 2028.
Russia & CIS
To stabilize the collapsing domestic fuel market, the Kremlin confirmed it is actively negotiating with foreign governments to secure emergency imports of petroleum products. The localized deficit has spawned severe price gouging, with police in Irkutsk intercepting black market speculators selling gasoline for up to 300 rubles per liter. In response to the crisis, Altai Republic Head Andrey Turchak announced strict retail limits starting July 1, while Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev extended existing sales restrictions for another month.
Some regions are introducing minor concessions for agricultural needs, with Bryansk region Acting Governor Yegor Kovalchuk permitting the sale of up to 10 liters of fuel in jerrycans. On the power generation front, the regional grid received a critical boost as Kursk region Governor Alexander Khinshtein announced the successful launch of the first power unit at the newly constructed Kursk NPP-2.
Armenia
Armenian business media are closely tracking the unprecedented fuel rationing across Russia, noting that Moscow’s sudden shift toward negotiating emergency petroleum imports exposes deep structural vulnerabilities within the EAEU supply chain. With Russian black market prices surging to 300 rubles per liter, Armenian importers face an imminent threat of severe imported inflation and absolute supply shortfalls from their primary regional partner.
To mitigate these systemic risks, Yerevan must rapidly recalibrate its energy procurement strategies. The global market’s shifting dynamics—highlighted by Morgan Stanley’s reduced $75 per barrel Brent forecast and the redirection of Asian crude—could offer Armenian enterprises strategic opportunities to secure alternative, more cost-effective international shipments before regional fuel deficits fully paralyze local logistics.