The Russian government has postponed a comprehensive diesel export ban despite officially acknowledging severe domestic fuel shortages. Meanwhile, escalating maritime threats in the Middle East have nearly paralyzed commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz and driven up European natural gas prices.
Global market
Geopolitical risks are elevating energy costs, with the benchmark European natural gas contract surging 1.6% to 41.38 euros per megawatt-hour. In the Persian Gulf, commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted by 90% from pre-war levels to roughly 13 vessels daily, following two kinetic strikes within 72 hours that forced the suspension of international maritime evacuation corridors.
Long-term energy infrastructure faces distinct demand pressures. The White House issued a warning that United States electricity prices could surge by 58% by 2030 without $1.4 trillion in new infrastructure investments to support artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency requirements. In the corporate sector, Italy’s Eni and the investment arm of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) each acquired a 32% stake in three gas blocks tied to Argentina’s liquefied natural gas export project in the Vaca Muerta basin.
Russia & CIS
Russian President Vladimir Putin officially acknowledged persistent domestic fuel supply issues resulting from targeted Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. Despite the deepening internal crisis, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that the government has deferred imposing a total ban on diesel exports for primary producers, opting to maintain only partial outbound restrictions alongside the existing gasoline embargo.
To manage severe localized deficits, regional authorities are resorting to extreme rationing measures. Oryol region Governor Andrey Klychkov announced that starting July 4, Rosneft and Gazprom filling stations will restrict fuel sales based on vehicle license plate numbers. Concurrently, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu held a strategic meeting with energy firm RusHydro to accelerate the construction of new hydroelectric power stations in Siberia to support large-scale industrial projects.
Armenia
The escalating fuel deficit in the Russian Federation and the implementation of extreme regional rationing measures create significant logistical and pricing risks for Armenia within the EAEU. Moscow’s temporary delay of a total diesel export embargo means Armenian petroleum importers must continue competing for shrinking refined volumes within an increasingly strained and unpredictable regional market.
In the broader energy security landscape, Armenian business outlets highlighted calls for the European Union to delay its planned ban on Russian liquefied natural gas to prevent an overreliance on imports from the United States. Furthermore, ongoing warnings from Russia’s Acting Permanent Representative to the UN Anna Evstigneeva regarding the threat of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia NPP reinforce the critical importance of stringent physical security measures for Armenia’s own nuclear infrastructure amidst macro-regional instability.