The Russian central bank is overhauling its macroeconomic projections as mandatory fuel rationing spreads across more than forty regions. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern oil production is showing robust signs of recovery, even as escalating maritime attacks depress tanker traffic through critical shipping lanes.
Global market
Middle East crude output has rebounded to between 14.6 million and 15 million barrels per day, with Rystad Energy projecting a full return to pre-war production levels by the end of the year. Despite this supply recovery, commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is ebbing again following recent vessel attacks that have stoked fresh safety concerns among shipowners.
Elsewhere, the Norwegian Union of Energy Workers announced that an additional 63 members will join the ongoing offshore strike after government mediation failed. In the Asia-Pacific region, Australia’s first-quarter natural gas exploration investments hit a decade-high of $329 million, and are expected to top $1 billion in 2026 as energy security takes center stage. Simultaneously, China’s liquefied natural gas imports are projected to reach 5.29 million tons in June as summer air-conditioning demand surges.
Russia & CIS
The domestic fuel crisis has forced the Bank of Russia to intervene on a macroeconomic level. Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin announced that the regulator will formally incorporate the inflationary impact of the fuel market shock into its medium-term forecast at the upcoming July meeting. This decision follows reports that over 40 Russian regions have now imposed stringent limits on retail fuel sales to combat severe supply deficits.
Local rationing has reached extreme levels across the country: authorities in the Krasnodar Krai municipality of Slavyansk-na-Kubani restricted purchases to 20 liters per vehicle, while Bashkiria implemented a 30-liter cap and banned the use of jerrycans. In Irkutsk, police detained multiple speculators attempting to resell gasoline on the black market for 250 rubles per liter. On the nuclear infrastructure front, Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev stated that the state corporation will begin hot testing at Turkey’s Akkuyu NPP in July, targeting a physical reactor launch by autumn.
Armenia
With no direct domestic energy policy announcements today, Armenia’s market outlook is increasingly shaped by shifting regional vulnerabilities. Armenian business outlets highlighted international media warnings that Europe risks entering the upcoming heating season with its lowest natural gas reserves in 15 years, a scenario that could drive up broader regional energy costs.
Furthermore, the impending autumn launch of the Akkuyu NPP in neighboring Turkey introduces a major new baseload power source to the regional grid, heightening the strategic importance of Armenia’s own nuclear modernization plans. Meanwhile, local importers monitoring wholesale costs noted a slight upward correction in global benchmarks, with Brent crude prices rebounding to $72.21 per barrel following recent drops.