A tentative 60-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran has triggered a steep decline in global crude oil prices, prompting tankers to cautiously navigate the heavily mined Persian Gulf. Concurrently, the Russian government is evaluating a comprehensive ban on diesel exports to counteract its domestic fuel shortages.
Global market
Following a 60-day ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, crude oil prices have entered a freefall as traders anticipate a massive supply surge. Tankers are actively leaving the Persian Gulf, leading to significant market shifts, such as Angolan crude selling at a $10 discount to dated Brent for the first time in a decade. Despite the de-escalation, maritime logistics remain highly perilous; the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization estimates that 80 unexploded mines are still scattered across the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian forces recently struck another commercial vessel.
Nevertheless, major shipping firms are tentatively returning to the region. Scorpio Tankers, the world’s largest LR2 fleet operator, resumed transits through the strait, securing a $10 million contract from Admic to deliver jet fuel to Europe. Meanwhile, the broader energy sector is increasingly focusing on power infrastructure for artificial intelligence, with investments in companies like Bitzero targeting a projected $5 trillion infrastructure requirement.
Russia & CIS
Russian authorities are urgently addressing domestic energy security, with the government now considering a total ban on diesel exports. Russian President Vladimir Putin described the national fuel deficit as uncritical, noting that domestic gasoline reserves currently stand at 1.7 million tons, matching last year’s levels. To stabilize the retail market, Moscow plans to accelerate energy infrastructure repairs, scale up petroleum product imports, and boost fuel deliveries to Crimea via both land and sea routes.
Regional fuel rationing has already commenced, with authorities in the Primorsky Krai restricting heavy trucks to a maximum of 200 liters per refueling. The energy grid is also under severe strain due to military actions; the Governor of the Zaporizhzhia region Yevgeny Balitsky reported that Ukrainian strikes caused widespread emergency power cuts, while the Governor of the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo confirmed that his entire territory is experiencing complete or partial blackouts. In a separate development aiming to secure long-term baseload generation, Uzbekistan announced plans to establish a new knowledge and skills center for nuclear energy.
Armenia
Armenia’s energy and trade dynamics face potential shifts as the Russian government deliberates a total ban on diesel exports, a move that could significantly disrupt fuel pricing and supply logistics across the EAEU. With Russia relying on imports to balance its own domestic shortfalls, Armenian petroleum importers must navigate an increasingly constrained regional fuel market to secure reliable deliveries.
However, the broader economic integration within the bloc may offer compensatory commercial benefits for Yerevan. The Russian government is currently discussing the expansion of its national procurement regime to grant priority status to EAEU suppliers of granite, glass, and ceramics. This policy adjustment could systematically boost Armenian industrial exports to the Russian Federation, providing a critical economic buffer amid the ongoing volatility in the regional energy sector.