The Russian government is preparing to debate a comprehensive ban on diesel exports as massive refinery fires and regional shortages threaten domestic fuel security. Simultaneously, Saudi Aramco has resumed shipments from its largest terminal, signaling a tentative recovery for Middle Eastern energy logistics following months of conflict.
Global market
Saudi Aramco has resumed oil loading at the Ras Tanura terminal, home to Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, after a four-month suspension caused by hostilities between the US and Iran. The restart was marred by a company helicopter crash in the eastern part of the kingdom that resulted in 14 fatalities. Despite the normalization of some routes, the Panama Canal Authority projects fiscal 2026 revenue to exceed $5.2 billion as global trade flows remain permanently altered by the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, with Egypt setting a target of 60% renewable electricity by 2040 through aggressive private solar and wind investment. According to Rystad Energy, the artificial intelligence boom is driving a tenfold increase in the fuel cell market, with revenues expected to hit $30 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, NASA is advancing plans for lunar energy production, collaborating with SpaceX and Blue Origin to deploy solar and nuclear reactors on the moon by 2029.
Russia & CIS
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that the Russian government will consider a total ban on diesel exports on June 29 to stabilize the domestic market. To further ease supply pressures, authorities have reduced the mandatory exchange sales requirement for gasoline from 15% to 10% for three months starting July 1. These interventions follow a catastrophic drone strike on the Slaviansk-on-Kuban refinery, where a fire engulfed more than 20,000 square meters.
Fuel rationing has become widespread in eastern territories; in the Irkutsk region, Governor Igor Kobzev declared a state of high alert, limiting sales to 50 liters per vehicle. While Rosneft has increased deliveries to 2.7 thousand tons per day in the region, the Kremlin is now actively pursuing fuel imports from EAEU partners to prevent a total collapse of the retail market. Additionally, Alexey Likhachev, the head of Rosatom, announced that Russian specialists will not return to the Bushehr NPP in Iran until absolute safety guarantees are secured.
Armenia
The regional energy outlook remains dominated by the suspension of operations at the Bushehr NPP, as the refusal of Rosatom to return its personnel highlights ongoing security risks in the vicinity of Armenia’s southern neighbors. This regional instability continues to complicate the long-term planning of integrated energy projects across the South Caucasus.
Within the EAEU framework, Armenia is increasingly central to Russia’s strategy to balance its internal deficit through union-wide fuel redistribution. Russian officials have indicated that the extension of zero-percent import duties on petroleum products will be a priority next week to facilitate smoother trade flows between member states. Domestically, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Secretariat noted that it anticipates a period of economic and political stabilization in Armenia following the upcoming parliamentary elections.