Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree extending the prohibition of oil exports to nations adhering to the price cap until the end of 2027. While Russia struggles with localized fuel deficits, global energy markets are witnessing a recovery in transit through the Strait of Hormuz alongside a significant increase in US drilling activity.
Global market
The US rig count rose this week to 573 active units, with oil rigs increasing by 7 to reach a total of 440, according to data from Baker Hughes. This expansion comes as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers, with tanker flows rebounding to 6.97 million barrels per day following a wartime low. Additionally, the Panama Canal Authority expects its fiscal 2026 revenue to exceed the $5.2 billion forecast due to the redirection of global shipping routes during the recent Persian Gulf instability.
Technological demand is also reshaping energy outlooks, with Rystad Energy projecting that fuel cell revenues will reach $30 billion by 2030 to power AI data centers. In a push for the green transition, Turkey’s environment minister Murat Kurum proposed a global plan to electrify 35% of all energy consumption by 2035. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy is advancing nuclear power with $17.5 billion in conditional loans for advanced reactor projects.
Russia & CIS
President Vladimir Putin has officially extended the ban on oil and petroleum product exports under the Western price cap until December 31, 2027. The domestic fuel market remains under intense pressure, as Dmitry Demeshin, the Governor of Khabarovsk Krai, reported that one-third of the region’s gas stations are currently empty. In response, Vice Prime Minister Alexander Novak has mandated that government agencies develop additional support measures to stabilize prices and secure supplies.
Corporate energy entities are adjusting their financial strategies; RussNeft approved dividends of $0.7 per preferred share, while Surgutneftegas set payouts at 0.85 rubles per share despite losses attributed to the strong ruble. In the conflict zone, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed a strike on the SP YUKOIL petroleum plant in the Zaporizhzhia region, while Ukrainian firm Naftogaz reported damage to its production infrastructure in Poltava and Kharkiv.
Armenia
Regional energy dynamics are tightening as the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have called on the European Union to implement a total ban on Russian oil as quickly as possible. Amidst this pressure, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova characterized the recent critical statements by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan regarding the EAEU as “demagoguery,” urging Yerevan to clarify its strategic commitment to the union versus the European Union.
On the domestic political front, the ruling Civil Contract party is reportedly seeking to replace the current leadership of the Armenian Parliament, including the speaker and vice-speakers. Furthermore, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is expected to appoint a new press secretary shortly. Despite these shifts, CIS Secretary General Sergey Lebedev expressed expectations for broader political stabilization in Armenia following the next round of parliamentary elections.