Price Summary
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price | 2-Week Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1135.50 | -101.25 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 1042.00 | -112.25 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 135.10 | +6.03 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1079.75 | -95.00 |
| Diesel & Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1466.00 | +9.25 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 1450.25 | -1.00 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1406.50 | -7.00 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 147.56 | -2.29 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 167.26 | -1.46 |
| Jet | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1539.75 | -56.75 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1459.25 | -67.25 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 970.25 | +49.25 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 876.25 | +36.75 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 112.68 | +8.12 |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 666.50 | +34.50 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 625.25 | +32.00 |
Региональный анализ рынка
Northwest Europe (NWE) The region’s gasoline market has been under pressure for two weeks: the Eurobob Barges FOB Rotterdam price fell by $112.25/metric ton to $1,042/metric ton, and the spot spread narrowed to its lowest level since late March. The main reason was a sharp rebound in inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub, which rose by 22.77% over the week to 868,000 metric tons, alleviating the shortage seen earlier. Export demand remains weak due to high freight rates, and expensive blending components—primarily MTBE and butane—make finished gasoline more profitable than blending. The diesel segment looks significantly stronger: ULSD CIF NWE gained $9.25/metric ton, to $1,466/metric ton, remaining the main driver of refiners’ margins amid a slump in gasoline prices. Jet fuel, on the other hand, lost $56.75/metric ton (to $1,539.75/metric ton) following the decline in the ICE LSGO contract. Naphtha CIF NWE jumped by $49.25/mt, to $970.25/mt, thanks to steady petrochemical demand and the widening of the East-West arbitrage window to $74/mt.
Mediterranean (Med) Over the past two weeks, the Mediterranean market has shown more moderate price movements than the northern region: Prem Unl 10 ppm FOB Med fell by $95/metric ton, to $1,079.75/metric ton, while the Med/North spread for gasoline actually widened amid relative weakness in Northern European prices. Diesel in the basin has remained more stable: ULSD FOB Med lost only $7/metric ton (to $1,406.50/metric ton), while ULSD CIF Med remained virtually unchanged (-$1/mt, $1,450.25/mt). Regional refineries quickly shifted production to jet fuel in response to increased demand, but this did not save the prices: Jet FOB Med plummeted by $67.25/mt, to $1,459.25/mt. Naphtha FOB Med, on the other hand, rose by $36.75/mt, to $876.25/mt, following the pan-European trend amid a shortage of direct supplies and heightened interest from petrochemical consumers. The region’s fuel oil was the week’s top performer: HSFO 3.5% CIF Med gained $34.50/metric ton (to $666.50/metric ton), while the FOB price rose by $32/metric ton, to $625.25/metric ton, driven by strong bunkering demand and limited supply of high-sulfur residues.
Russia & CIS There is little direct data on export flows from the region for the reporting period; however, market participants note the risk of increased availability of crude oil from Russia should local refineries operate without disruption—this factor is already being factored into pricing on the European crude oil market. At the same time, significant refining capacity in Russia remains offline, which continues to fuel concerns about the availability of petroleum products and increases volatility in the tight crude oil market, where even individual trades can significantly move prices. This combination of factors—the potential supply glut resulting from the resumption of refinery operations versus the current idling of capacity—remains a key source of uncertainty for the European market’s supply-demand balance in the coming weeks.
West Africa (WAF) No direct market commentary on West Africa was recorded in the available materials over the past week; the region was not among the key drivers of market dynamics during the period under review. The region’s supply-demand balance may be indirectly influenced by the overall demand picture in the Atlantic basin, where high freight rates are limiting interregional flows of gasoline and distillates, as well as calendarrollovers in European markets, which shape the forward curve for shipments destined for Africa.
Global Factors The main geopolitical factor of the week remained the escalation in the Middle East: an exchange of airstrikes between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces kept the risk premium in oil prices elevated and affected significant refining capacity in the region, which heightened concerns about product availability amid the de facto postponement of scheduled maintenance in Europe. The European Commission announced the start of consultations with refiners to address immediate issues caused by the conflict and assess the sector’s medium-term competitiveness, emphasizing the strategic importance of diesel and jet fuel for mobility, the economy, and defense. In Asia, the South Korea–EU arbitrage window remained open: South Korean kerosene shipments reached 415,000 metric tons in October, while Japanese buyers ramped up purchases ahead of the winter season, and Australian operators continued to seek additional spot shipments of diesel. In the petrochemical sector, the propane shortage in Europe—caused by refineries switching to burning LPG for power generation due to high gas prices—created additional demand for naphtha from pyrolysis units, partially offsetting the pressure from weakening gasoline blending demand.