Price Summary
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1186.25 | -50.50 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 1098.75 | -55.50 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 133.89 | +4.82 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1109.25 | -65.50 |
| Diesel & Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1479.00 | +22.25 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 1476.75 | +25.50 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1432.50 | +19.00 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 156.32 | +6.47 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 176.75 | +8.03 |
| Jet | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1617.25 | +20.75 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1536.00 | +9.50 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 933.50 | +12.50 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 838.75 | -0.75 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 107.12 | +2.56 |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf ($/mt) | 735.28 | — |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 661.00 | +29.00 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 621.50 | +28.25 |
Региональный анализ рынка
Northwest Europe (NWE) The gasoline market in Northwestern Europe saw a significant downward correction over the week: the CIF NWE price fell by -50.50 $/t to 1,186.25 $/t, while Eurobob FOB Rotterdam barges lost $55.50/metric ton, falling to $1,098.75/metric ton — after a spike on Monday above $1,179/metric ton, the market fell for two consecutive days (below $1,030/metric ton) amid weak seasonal demand and high freight rates, which were blocking export flows, before partially recovering by Thursday on news of a 14.4% decline in inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub to 707,000 metric tons—a multi-year low. The gasoline-naphtha spread narrowed to multi-month lows amid competition from the petrochemical sector for feedstock, sharply worsening the economics of blending and forcing blenders to seek alternative octane-boosting components. The diesel complex, by contrast, strengthened throughout the week: ULSD CIF NWE rose by +22.25 $/t, to 1,479.00 $/t amid a persistent supply shortage and high freight rates. Jet fuel also gained +$20.75/metric ton, to $1,617.25/metric ton: stocks in the ARA region remained at historically low levels, and jet fuel imports into Europe from October 1–19 had already exceeded the entire volume for September, reaching 2.2 million metric tons, and the petrochemical sector continued to draw naphtha (CIF NWE +$12.50/metric ton, to $933.50/metric ton) from the blend pool amid rising propane prices.
Mediterranean (Med) In the Mediterranean, gasoline prices fell more sharply than in the north: the Prem Unl 10 ppm FOB Med quote dropped by -65.50 $/t, to 1,109.25 $/t amid a seasonal decline in demand and high demurrage costs, although by the end of the week traders were increasingly talking about an impending shortage in November—stocks in the ARA region had plummeted, and high freight rates blocked shipments from Northwestern Europe to the region, causing the Med/North spread to widen. Demand from Egypt and Syria (at a level of about 90,000 metric tons per month, roughly three tankers) provided support to the region, partially offsetting the weakness in Italian and Adriatic imports. The diesel complex in the region, as in the north, trended upward: ULSD CIF Med rose by +25.50 $/t, to 1,476.75 $/t, while FOB Med rose by +19.00 $/t, to 1,432.50 $/t. FOB Med jet fuel rose by +$9.50/metric ton, to $1,536.00/metric ton amid ongoing seasonal shipping activity and a general shortage of the product in Europe. Naphtha FOB Med remained virtually unchanged (-$0.75/metric ton, $838.75/metric ton), staying under pressure from a weakening gasoline complex, while fuel oil jumped sharply: HSFO 3.5% CIF Med rose by +$29.00/metric ton, to $661.00/metric ton, and FOB Med rose by +$28.25/metric ton, to $621.50/metric ton.
Russia & CIS For Russia and the CIS countries, the key development of the week was the attacks on Russian oil refineries that produce diesel fuel, — an issue that U.S. President Donald Trump publicly addressed, noting that such attacks “severely impact global diesel markets.” The loss of a portion of Russian output is exacerbating the global shortage of distillates and directly supporting prices for diesel and gasoil: Gasoil 10 ppm FOB Arab Gulf rose by +$6.47/barrel, to $156.32/barrel, while Gasoil FOB Singapore rose by +$8.03/barrel to $176.75/barrel, reflecting the general trend of rising prices for middle distillates, which also involves the CIS region as a traditional supplier and consumer of petroleum products. Against this backdrop, a number of EU countries, notably Spain, have partially tapped into their strategic reserves (4.4 million barrels of diesel and jet fuel as part of collective measures by the International Energy Agency), underscoring the severity of the distillate shortage, which was partly triggered by a reduction in supply from Russia.
West Africa (WAF) In West Africa, market dynamics were largely driven by the decline in European gasoline benchmarks, which traditionally serve as the basis for import prices in the region: the decline in Eurobob FOB Rotterdam barge prices by -55.50 $/t and CIF NWE quotes by -50.50 $/t theoretically reduces the cost of shipments to West Africa, however, in practice, this effect was offset by persistently extremely high freight rates—attacks on tankers off the coast of Saudi Arabia and in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (a total of four incidents between October 16 and 18) kept shipping costs elevated, complicating arbitrage not only within Europe but also on long-haul routes, including West Africa. The rise in the cost of jet fuel (CIF NWE +$20.75/metric ton) and diesel is also translating into more expensive fuel imports for the region, which relies on supplies from Europe and the Persian Gulf. Amid structurally high freight rates and volatile gasoline spreads, West African buyers, by indirect indications, were forced to compete for volumes with more solvent Mediterranean markets, which were experiencing their own shortages in November.
Global Factors The main systemic risk of the week remained the escalation in the Persian Gulf region: between October 16 and 18, at least four attacks on tankers were recorded, including an RPG attack on a vessel near Jubail on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, with 63 passages through the Strait of Hormuz and 122 passages through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait over three days (the highest since August 18). This kept net freight rates (Clean Arab Gulf–UKC, 90,000 metric tons, LR2) at an elevated level of around $219/metric ton and factored a risk premium into all regional petroleum product markets. Against this backdrop, airlines are warning of a sharp rise in fares: Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has suggested a record increase in European airfares next year—up to 20%; similar concerns have been expressed by representatives of Jet2holidays, WestJet, and TAP Air Portugal, who expect higher fuel costs through 2027–2028. In Asia, the gasoline market moved in the opposite direction to Europe: the price of Gasoline 92 unleaded FOB Singapore rose by +$4.82/barrel, to $133.89/barrel, while Naphtha FOB Singapore rose by +$2.56/barrel to $107.12/barrel, reflecting more stable regional demand. Technical issues at European cracking units provided an additional boost to the petrochemical segment — an accident at BASF’s pyrolysis unit in Ludwigshafen on October 17 and disruptions at Shell’s butadiene plant in Moerdijk, which exacerbated price volatility for naphtha and olefin feedstocks.