Price Summary
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price | 2-Week Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1168.25 | +45.75 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 1112.00 | +44.50 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 111.31 | -3.50 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1109.50 | +32.25 |
| Diesel & Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1327.00 | -16.00 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 1367.00 | -38.75 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1352.00 | -34.50 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 154.51 | +0.56 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 161.27 | +0.89 |
| Jet | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1293.75 | -58.00 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1264.75 | -50.25 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 754.50 | -41.00 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 721.75 | -31.75 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 85.12 | -9.47 |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf ($/mt) | 688.89 | -60.10 |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 522.75 | +11.75 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 492.25 | +11.00 |
Региональный анализ рынка
Northwest Europe (NWE)
Eurobob gasoline FOB Rotterdam rose by $44.50/metric ton over the past two weeks and closed the week at $1,112/metric ton, while the spot/M1 spread widened to $130.50/metric ton—historically high levels. The decisive factor was the catastrophic low water levels on the Rhine: the water level at the Kaub gauge dropped from 16 cm on Monday to record lows below 10 cm by Friday, breaking the previous all-time low set in October 2018 (25 cm), and is forecast to remain extremely low through the end of August. An acute shortage of octane-boosting blending components—primarily MTBE, whose premium to the E5 front-month swap settled at $359.25/metric ton—prevented traders from entering the market; the E10/E5 spread widened to a record discount of $39/metric ton, the lowest since October 2022. Trading activity remained minimal throughout the week: virtually no trades were executed during the daily MOC window, although the number of orders reached 10–11 per day. Gasoline stocks in the ARA hub rose by 6.15% to 846,000 metric tons as of August 13 due to weaker export demand from the U.S. and Africa, while naphtha stocks increased by 3.46% to 598,000 metric tons due to the accumulation of material that cannot be shipped via the Rhine. Infrastructure-related events included an explosion at the Gunvor fuel terminal in Rotterdam on August 13, which claimed one life, and a brief forced shutdown of the ExxonMobil refinery due todue to a power outage, which was resolved the same day. CIF NWE jet fuel fell by $58/metric ton over the two-week period to $1,293.75/metric ton, while ULSD diesel CIF NWE fell by $16/metric ton to $1,327/metric ton.
Mediterranean (Med)
A key development in the Mediterranean market was the threat of force majeure at Libya’s Zawiya refinery, which forced market participants to rely on replacement volumes from Italy, Spain, and the ARA hub. The Med/North spread widened by $20/metric ton to $24/metric ton from August 3 to 11, but by the end of the week it had narrowed to $18/metric ton—which keeps north-to-south barge transport economically viable. The spot/M1 differential for FOB Med gasoline reached $132/t by August 14, which is $108/t higher than a year ago. Over two weeks, Premium Unleaded 10 ppm gasoline FOB Med rose by $32.25/t to $1,109.50/t, while ULSD diesel CIF Med fell by $38.75/t to $1,367/t, and ULSD FOB Med fell by $34.50/t to $1,352/t. FOB Med jet fuel lost $50.25/metric ton over two weeks, closing at $1,264.75/metric ton. Naphtha FOB Med fell by $31.75/t to $721.75/t. Fuel oil showed the opposite trend: HSFO 3.5% CIF Med rose by $11.75/t to $522.75/t amid steady bunker demand.
Russia & CIS
Market dynamics for petroleum products in the CIS region during the reporting week were primarily driven by global trends. The diesel segment faced downward pressure: a $16–39/metric ton decline in ULSD prices at European hubs over two weeks led to a deterioration in benchmarks for the region’s export quotes. Jet fuel prices at key global markets fell by $50–58/metric ton, reflecting a seasonal slowdown in aviation demand at the end of summer. Naphtha came under the most significant pressure: FOB Arab Gulf prices fell by $60.10/metric ton to $688.89/metric ton over two weeks, setting the lower price benchmark for naphtha in the eastbound market. Amid a general decline in middle distillate fractions, the gasoline segment remains relatively supported: a European shortage of blending components is creating conditions for gasoline prices to remain high in the short term.
West Africa (WAF)
In West Africa, a decline in import demand for European gasoline was recorded this week: according to industry data, the drop in export demand from West and North Africa was one of the reasons for the increase in gasoline inventories at the ARA hub. The transatlantic spread to the U.S. also remained unprofitable: the spread between September RBOB and EBOB stood at 8.601 cents per gallon as of August 12, providing no incentive to redirect European flows. European traders openly stated that “there is little point in trading the U.S. market under current conditions,” preferring to maintain regional positions. The end of the summer driving season, which is drawing nearer with each passing week, signals a moderate slowdown in key sales channels for West African importers over the next few weeks.
Global Factors
According to the International Energy Agency, gasoline stocks in OECD countries fell by 616,000 metric tons in May to 44.78 million metric tons, while European gasoline imports have dropped by 1.68 million metric tons year-over-year to 17.29 million metric tons—against the backdrop of a 2.1% year-over-year decline in regional production to 47.18 million metric tons, which is exacerbating the structural deficit. Crude oil futures showed a moderate downward trend for most of the week, however, gasoline cracks in NWE held steady due to local market tightness: by the end of Friday, the Eurobob crack stood at $32.05/barrel. U.S. gasoline exports for the week ending August 7 rose to 852,000 b/d from 807,000 b/d the previous week, but this did not offset the European deficit. In the Asian market, 92-octane gasoline FOB Singapore lost $3.50/barrel over two weeks to $111.31/barrel, while FOB Singapore gasoil gained only $0.89/barrel to $161.27/barrel. Naphtha became the most vulnerable segment of the global market: FOB Arab Gulf naphtha fell by $60.10/metric ton to $688.89/metric ton over two weeks, reflecting an oversupply in the eastern region and weakened demand from the petrochemical sector. The market as a whole was shaped by two opposing trends: a structural deficit in the European gasoline market and global pressure on middle distillates, jet fuel, and naphtha.