Price Summary
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1122.50 | -23.25 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 1067.50 | -25.75 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 114.81 | -6.02 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1077.25 | -29.50 |
| Diesel & Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1343.00 | +58.50 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 1405.75 | +107.50 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1386.50 | +103.25 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 153.95 | -4.58 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 160.38 | -4.63 |
| Jet | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1351.75 | +21.25 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1315.00 | +13.75 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 795.50 | -27.50 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 753.50 | -36.25 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 94.59 | -12.80 |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf ($/mt) | 748.99 | -115.50 |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 511.00 | -27.75 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 481.25 | -29.00 |
Региональный анализ рынка
Northwest Europe (NWE)
The week was marked by an unprecedented shortage of octane components. On July 28, the Eurobob gasoline refining margin reached a record $39.05/barrel—its highest level since June 2022. At the same time, the market remained sharply backwardated: the August/September spread widened to $75.50/metric ton during the week, closing on Friday at $66.75/metric ton. The MTBE premium over the Eurobob swap held near multi-year highs—$287.25/metric ton—while the toluene premium exceeded $260/metric ton. Traders noted an extreme shortage of reformate, with minimal supply of CIF NWE shipments amid high demand. By the end of the week, gasoline inventories at the ARA hub jumped 21.23% to 982,000 metric tons, but the octane shortage did not ease. Critically low water levels on the Rhine—less than 30 cm at the Kaub lock (forecast: 24 cm by August 4), which effectively paralyzed barge transport inland. For the same reason, naphtha stocks in the ARA region rose by 30.93% to 618 thousand metric tons—the product accumulated at the hub, unable to find a way upstream. The transatlantic spread narrowed significantly: the RBOB-EBOB differential plummeted by 28.9% over the week, reducing the appeal of shipments from the U.S.
Mediterranean (Med)
The Mediterranean gasoline market remained severely tight throughout the week. During the July MOC window, there were 20 bids to buy and only 4 offers to sell Mediterranean cargoes—no deals were concluded, indicating a lack of sellers at acceptable prices. The Med/North spread remained at a discount—ranging from $0.75/metric ton to $4.50/metric ton—and did not return to positive territory, as Northwestern Europe suffered from exactly the same octane shortage. By the end of the week, FOB Med gasoline closed down $29.50/t compared to last Friday. Diesel in the region showed the exact opposite trend: ULSD CIF Med rose by $107.50/t over the week—a record increase among all tracked products. The physical market was supported by disruptions in Russian diesel supplies and attacks on refining infrastructure. FOB Med jet fuel gained $13.75/metric ton amid a geopolitical premium, although differentials remained volatile throughout the week. Naphtha FOB Med fell by $36.25/metric ton, reflecting volatility linked to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Russia & CIS
The Russian factor remained key to the global fuel market. On July 30, the Russian government extended the ban on gasoline exports until January 31, 2027 (the measure had previously been set to expire on July 31), while restrictions on diesel exports remain in place until the domestic market recovers. The main reason was extensive damage to refineries resulting from Ukrainian strikes: plants in Kirishi, Astrakhan, Salavat, and the Samara cluster remained out of exchange trading. Partial recovery was observed at the Taneco, TAIF, Volgograd, Ryazan, Moscow, and Omsk refineries, as well as at Norsi; however, the recovery was uneven. To supply the domestic market, Russia imported gasoline from India and reached agreements on the supply of surplus fuel from Kazakhstan. In addition, expanding the role of mini-refineries as reserve capacity is under discussion, although analysts assess their contribution as limited. Crude oil exports from Russia have declined due to infrastructure damage and the reallocation of capacity to motor gasoline production, which has exacerbated the global shortage of octane components.
West Africa (WAF)
The Dangote refinery in Nigeria has become a significant counterbalance to disruptions in the Middle East. In June, the facility operated at 101% of its initial capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and met about 70% of Nigeria’s domestic gasoline demand. Since then, the refinery has expanded to 700,000 barrels per day, and the Dangote Group has raised $2.5 billion as part of plans to increase capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028. Throughout the week, Nigerian exports actively filled the Middle Eastern shortfall in the European market: the country was among the largest suppliers of jet fuel and gasoline to Europe. At the same time, high export prices for Nigerian jet fuel have become one of the factors that could limit supplies to the region as summer demand wanes. Dangote has demonstrated that a large, well-integrated refinery is capable of significantly altering the structure of regional trade flows in the Atlantic Basin.
Global Factors
The week unfolded amid a sharp escalation of the Middle East conflict. On July 27, the parties announced a pause in the attacks, which temporarily reduced the geopolitical premium; however, on July 28–29, Iran launched missile strikes against U.S. bases in Jordan, and the U.S. responded with a wave of strikes against Iran on the night of July 30. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia faced a serious incident: The Aramco refinery in Jazan, with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, was completely shut down following a Houthi strike on July 25 and remains out of operation—the estimated date for restarting operations after repairs is August 15. On July 20, the Houthis declared a “naval blockade” of Saudi Arabia, threatening shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remained at reduced levels—16 vessels per day on July 25–26—and only recovered to 28 vessels by the end of the week. According to IATA, global passenger air traffic fell by 1.7% year-over-year in June—the third consecutive month of decline; demand for Middle Eastern destinations dropped by 14% year-over-year. The jet fuel market faced additional pressure from oversupply—since the start of the war, refineries around the world have maximized kerosene production to replace Middle Eastern volumes, leading to oversupply.