Price Summary
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1172.25 | +158.00 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 1119.75 | +158.00 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 107.02 | +12.42 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1086.75 | +125.50 |
| Diesel & Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1236.75 | +197.50 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 1247.00 | +181.75 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1232.50 | +181.25 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 141.62 | +22.86 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 148.53 | +22.95 |
| Jet | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1233.25 | +181.75 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1205.00 | +181.00 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 763.50 | +82.00 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 731.75 | +81.25 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 88.49 | +9.41 |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf ($/mt) | 713.74 | +73.48 |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 510.75 | +58.50 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 488.75 | +56.25 |
Региональный анализ рынка
Northwest Europe (NWE) The gasoline market in Northwestern Europe experienced one of the most volatile weeks of the season: Eurobob barge prices rose to $1,020.50/metric ton by Friday, while the equivalent crack spread widened to $37.65/bbl. Gasoline stocks at the ARA hub fell by 9.29% over the week to 820,000 metric tons—the lowest level since early June 2024. Extremely low water levels on the Rhine (45 cm at Kaub on July 16, with the threshold for full barge loading at 55 cm) disrupted river logistics and caused a buildup of naphtha at the hub: its stocks jumped 15.63% to 392,000 metric tons by July 15. A shortage of high-octane components put pressure on blenders’ margins—the MTBE premium to the Eurobob swap price remained near $242–247/metric ton, while the oxygenates market remained tight. CIF NWE jet fuel ended the week at $1,233.25/metric ton (+$181.75/metric ton over seven sessions), while jet fuel inventories in the ARA region fell another 2.36% to 578,000 metric tons—28.4% below last year’s level. ULSD diesel CIF NWE reached $1,236.75/metric ton, gaining a record $197.50/metric ton over the week as refineries shifted to maximize diesel output.
Mediterranean (Med) The Mediterranean gasoline market remained in a state of severe shortage: market participants reported a complete lack of available cargoes through mid-August. The Italian Milazzo refinery, with a capacity of 200,000 barrels per day, has had its reforming unit under repair since mid-June—the scheduled restart is set for July 20, which significantly limits the availability of high-octane components for blending. By Friday, the market had become extremely volatile and illiquid due to a shortage of cargoes: the spreads between bid and ask prices in the MOC window reached their highest levels of the week. The Med/North relative to the Eurobob swap price plummeted to –$51/metric ton on Friday, while the August spread fell to –$33/metric ton—a cumulative decline of more than $50/metric ton over five trading sessions. Gasoline exports to West Africa via the region surged sharply, reaching 1.4 million metric tons by July 15—the highest level since January 2026. ULSD CIF Med ended the week at $1,247/mt (+$181.75/mt), with the spread over crude remaining high as refineries continued to favor diesel production.
Russia & CIS According to industry analysts, oil refining in Russia fell in June to approximately 3.8 million barrels per day—a decline of more than 1.5 million barrels per day below** the level at the start of the year, making Russia one of the largest contributors to the global refining deficit. The decline in Russian exports of petroleum products continues to directly impact the European market: limited supply of Russian-origin diesel has prompted European refineries to shift their focus toward maximizing diesel output, which in turn is reducing jet fuel production and is expected to lead to a further tightening of supply in the second half of August. Buyers’ demands for confirmation of the non-Russian origin of crude oil and blending components persisted throughout the week, increasing transaction costs and adding a structural premium to crude oil prices in Northwestern Europe. The cumulative reduction in Russian capacity, coupled with declining refining activity in China and the Middle East, is placing unprecedented pressure on the global refining balance.
West Africa (WAF) West Africa became the key destination for European gasoline exports in July: shipment volumes reached 1.4 million metric tons by July 15, matching the high set in January 2026. The sharp rise in demand is driven by a combination of high price differentials, which make European gasoline competitive, and the expansion of Nigeria’s import permit system. Transatlantic flows to the U.S. are competing with the African market for limited European supplies, maintaining upward pressure on prices in both regions. At the same time, Nigeria is a supplier of jet fuel to the European market—alongside the U.S., Oman, India, and Saudi Arabia—which confirms the two-way nature of Nigerian oil trading in the current market environment.
Global Factors The main event of the week was a sharp escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict: U.S. forces launched another strike against Iranian targets on July 14, and Iranian cruise missiles struck two UAE-flagged tankers in Omani waters near the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the strait plummeted to 18 ships per day on July 13—with 74% of them linked to Iran—and only partially recovered to 34 transits on July 14. The disruption to shipping has heightened market concerns about a possible nonlinear price spike as strategic reserves are depleted. The U.S. gasoline market is rapidly drawing down European stocks: in the first half of July alone, 649,000 metric tons of European gasoline were unloaded in the U.S.—that’s already 170,000 metric tons more than in all of July 2025, and 298,000 metric tons more than the total volume for June 2026. At the same time, global refining capacity is shrinking from several fronts: Russian capacity has fallen by more than 1.5 million barrels per day, Chinese refineries have reduced their utilization by approximately 3 million barrels per day, and Middle Eastern refineries are only beginning to ramp up output as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz partially resumes. Forecasted rainfall on July 17 is expected to raise the water level on the Kaub River from 55 to 83 cm by July 20, which will partially restore river logistics in Germany and relieve some of the pressure on the Rhine oil corridor.