Price Summary
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price July 10 | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasolines | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1014.25 | -10.00 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) | 961.75 | -10.00 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 94.60 | -0.64 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med ($/mt) | 961.25 | +31.50 |
| Diesel & Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1039.25 | +85.00 |
| ULSD | CIF Med ($/mt) | 1065.25 | +96.25 |
| ULSD | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1051.25 | +96.25 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf ($/bbl) | 118.76 | +10.14 |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 125.58 | +10.60 |
| Jet | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 1051.50 | +72.75 |
| Jet | FOB Med ($/mt) | 1024.00 | +72.75 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE ($/mt) | 681.50 | +29.25 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med ($/mt) | 650.50 | +29.25 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore ($/bbl) | 79.08 | +8.20 |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf ($/mt) | 640.26 | +57.82 |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med ($/mt) | 452.25 | +44.75 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med ($/mt) | 432.50 | +42.50 |
Regional Market Review
Northwest Europe (NWE)
The gasoline market experienced significant volatility throughout the week. On Monday and Tuesday, prices were supported by sustained export demand for non-oxygenated grades, while oxygenated blends came under pressure due to a shortage of blending components. The MTBE FOB ARA premium to the Eurobob front-month futures contract held steady near $279.75/mt amid a sharp drop in imports from China. On Wednesday, the announcement of a breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp price spike: the Eurobob barge swap rose by $53.25/mt to reach $925/mt. By Friday’s close, prices had corrected downward to $881.50/mt following weaker crude prices. Inland, low Rhine water levels—the Kaub checkpoint is expected to drop to 55 cm—disrupted barge navigation and forced market participants to switch to rail transport, the capacity of which proved severely constrained.
Mediterranean (Med)
The Mediterranean market showed sustained steep backwardation, signaling a physical supply deficit. On Wednesday, driven by geopolitical developments, FOB Med prices jumped to $984.75/mt, but by Friday had corrected to $961.25/mt, with a trade in the MOC window at $962.42/mt. The key structural tightness driver was additional demand from the Black Sea, which was drawing volumes away from the broader Mediterranean basin; amid EU sanctions, the exact destination of these flows remains uncertain. For regional distillates, a significant increase in ULSD prices was recorded: the weekly change on a CIF Med basis was +$96.25/mt. Jet FOB Med rose $72.75/mt over the week.
Russia & CIS
Russian naphtha exports in June fell to a record low of 940,000 metric tons (the lowest since records began in 2016), down from 951,000 metric tons in May. The cause was systematic Ukrainian drone strikes: the Tuapse refinery has been offline since mid-April, and Black Sea and Baltic port facilities have been repeatedly damaged. Against a backdrop of domestic Russian gasoline shortages, demand from the Black Sea region put additional pressure on Mediterranean prices. Russian refiner netbacks reflected a significant increase across ULSD and naphtha benchmarks.
West Africa (WAF)
The Dangote refinery in Nigeria remains a key supplier of jet fuel and diesel to Europe: 284,000 metric tons of aviation fuel have already been imported from Nigeria in July, following record inflows in June. Combined with jet fuel imports from the U.S. and India, this kept pressure on Jet CIF NWE differentials, which are expected to persist through the first half of August. Market participants expect the market to tighten in late summer as supply inflows ease.
Global Factors
The main macroeconomic event of the week was the sharp escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions: on July 8, Washington announced the effective collapse of the ceasefire, after which Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic through the strait virtually came to a standstill, triggering a surge in crude oil futures above $80/b and a sharp widening of East-West naphtha spreads. By the end of the week, the situation had partially stabilized as a diplomatic solution was sought, but the geopolitical risk premium remains the key source of uncertainty across all petroleum product categories. At the same time, falling Rhine water levels disrupted inland European logistics, amplifying structural pressure on naphtha and gasoline prices. According to EIA data, U.S. gasoline stocks had fallen by 1.9 million barrels to 212.1 million barrels by July 3, and on the Atlantic Coast (PADD 1) by 1.7 million barrels to 55.6 million barrels, sustaining high arbitrage incentives to attract European volumes.