The Bank of Russia raised its 2026 Urals oil price forecast to $72 per barrel as global Brent crude breached $115 amid escalating Middle East conflict. Concurrently, Italian major Eni reported a 125% profit surge while Armenian retail fuel prices remained stable under Eurasian energy agreements.
Global market
Brent crude futures rose above $115 per barrel on the ICE exchange for the first time since May 4, driven by intensifying security threats to Persian Gulf energy infrastructure. Capitalizing on soaring refining margins and higher production, Italian energy group Eni reported a 125% increase in third-quarter adjusted net profit to $3.14 billion. In Latin America, North American Blue Energy Partners raised Venezuelan crude output by 20,000 barrels per day since August and plans to activate three additional rigs. Meanwhile, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez warned that 6,000 seafarers remain trapped near the Strait of Hormuz amid growing maritime security risks.
Russia & CIS
The Bank of Russia raised its 2026 Urals crude price forecast from $60 to $72 per barrel following its key rate policy meeting. The central bank emphasized that domestic diesel production remains fully sufficient to cover internal market demand and export obligations. In neighboring Moldova, state energy company Energocom requested a 31% electricity tariff increase from the national regulator. Additionally, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced that the Ukrainian capital has ceased generating its own electricity following severe damage to local power infrastructure.
Armenia
Political analysts noted that Armenia exiting the EAEU is not a realistic prospect, pointing to deeply intertwined trade and economic dependencies within the bloc. Despite global crude prices surging past $115 per barrel, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Direct natural gas imports from Russia and generation at the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant continue at full capacity under EAEU long-term contracts, insulating domestic consumers from global price shocks tracked in international market price assessments.