Middle East crude exports recovered to near pre-war levels of 16.5 million barrels per day despite ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while Washington lifted red diesel restrictions to suppress fuel costs. Meanwhile, European Union officials weighed postponing methane regulations as winter heating risks mounted.
Global market
Middle East crude exports recovered to 16.5 million barrels per day in September, according to Standard Chartered and Kpler, even as only 60% of shipments crossed the Strait of Hormuz compared with 83% prior to hostilities. To bypass maritime bottlenecks, Iraqi Oil Tankers Co. Director General Ali Qais announced purchases of crude tankers for direct long-haul deliveries. Meanwhile, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen stated Brussels is considering delaying implementation of the EU methane rule scheduled for January to prevent further gas supply squeezes. On trade shifts, Oman replaced the US as India’s top LNG supplier in September with a 27% market share, while Qatar’s share fell to 4.3%. Following the G7’s 100-million-barrel reserve release, US WTI crude prices eased to $90 per barrel.
Russia & CIS
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order removing restrictions on agricultural “red” diesel to curb record fuel prices, describing rising petrol costs as a necessary tradeoff for national security. Following drone strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh, Yemeni Houthi forces declared Saudi airspace a military operation zone. On the economic front, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved a national Bioeconomy Strategy through 2036 targeting a 1 trillion ruble market, expanding biotechs for alternative fuels and synthetic materials. Furthermore, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk held talks with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to discuss bilateral energy trade, while Spain imported record volumes of Venezuelan crude.
Armenia
Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian conducted high-level talks on expanding energy infrastructure and the TRIPP transit corridor, strengthening bilateral ties amid Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Despite global market volatility and European energy crunch warnings, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Natural gas deliveries from Russia and continuous generation at the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant proceed without interruption under long-term EAEU trade agreements, shielding domestic consumers from price spikes recorded by international market price assessments.