Saudi Aramco warned that global crude inventories face a two-year recovery period following a three-billion-barrel supply loss, while European officials cautioned over a harsh winter ahead. Meanwhile, Russian budget payouts to oil refiners under the fuel damper mechanism rose to 305.5 billion rubles in September, and a Turkish energy delegation visited Yerevan.
Global market
Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser warned that global crude inventories are “scarily thin” and could take up to two years to rebuild, following a loss of nearly 3 billion barrels in gross oil supply since Middle Eastern hostilities escalated. Nasser noted that over 1 billion barrels have already been drawn from global stocks to offset supply deficits. Concurrently, European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen warned of a harsh winter due to elevated energy prices, noting emergency stock releases only buy time. In demand shifts, sales of battery electric vehicles in the EU jumped 45% between January and August to 1.64 million units, while reports emerged of a possible fire at Saudi Arabia’s Petro Rabigh refining complex.
Russia & CIS
State budget payouts to Russian oil refiners under the fuel damper mechanism rose to 305.5 billion rubles in September, up from 197.3 billion rubles in August, according to Finam data, supporting domestic fuel price stability. In nuclear security, the press service of Zaporizhzhia NPP reported Ukrainian drone strikes against Laboratory-Administrative Building No. 2 and a radioactive waste processing building, with Rosatom Chief Executive Officer Alexey Likhachev confirming radiation levels remain normal. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that rising US gasoline prices stem from Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, rather than Hormuz transit disruptions, while Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas shares led a 2% gain on the Moscow Exchange.
Armenia
The official visit of Turkey’s electricity transmission company TEIAS leadership to Yerevan and Saudi Aramco’s warnings of global oil deficit remain in focus for Armenian energy analysts, evaluating regional grid integration and supply security. Despite global inventory depletion and European energy price pressures, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Natural gas shipments from Russia and continuous power generation at the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant proceed under long-term EAEU trade agreements shielding domestic consumers from price volatility recorded by international market price assessments.