US WTI crude futures crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since May as vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz slumped to single digits. To safeguard maritime trade, Saudi Arabia established a national war-risk insurance pool, while Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina identified fuel market stress as the primary driver of summer inflation.
Global market
US WTI crude futures surged to $104.46 per barrel as ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plunged to just seven vessels per day, down from a 15-vessel average, according to Kpler. In response to escalating naval threats, Saudi Arabia approved a national marine war-risk insurance pool, announced Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan. Adding to supply chain risks, Iranian-backed Houthi forces captured the Red Sea port of Mocha near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which handles 6.2 million barrels per day of oil and products. On the demand side, Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen noted accelerating inventory drawdowns, while Beijing mandated a 70% electric vehicle sales target by 2030.
Russia & CIS
Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina declared that summer inflation accelerated primarily due to fuel market disruptions. Speaking at a press conference, Nabiullina projected full recovery of Russian refinery capacity by the end of 2026 as scheduled maintenance concludes. In corporate legal developments, the Arbitration Court of Saint Petersburg and Leningrad Region dismissed a lawsuit by the Prosecutor General seeking to seize 45% of shares and 4 billion rubles in dividends from the Saint Petersburg Oil Terminal. In the Arctic, Rosneft’s 4 trillion ruble Vostok Oil project dispatched its first crude cargo aboard the tanker Valentin Pikul after loading for 84 days at Bukhta Sever.
Armenia
Plunging maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea chokepoints heightens transit risks for regional fuel importers, market analysts report. The spike in global WTI crude above $100 per barrel and summer fuel market volatility across the CIS present indirect cost pressure on regional transport logistics. Nevertheless, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Armenia’s domestic fuel market is shielded from global price swings through its membership in the EAEU, supported by long-term bilateral agreements with Russia that protect consumers from fluctuations in international market price assessments.