The International Energy Agency downgraded its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 2.5 million barrels per day as prolonged Middle East shipping disruptions threaten global energy flows. Simultaneously, US diesel prices hit a historic $6 per gallon, while Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signaled a push for energy diversification.
Global market
The IEA reduced its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 2.5 million barrels per day, projecting global supply to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day to 100.7 million. IEA analysts expect transit through the Strait of Hormuz to remain severely restricted throughout 2026, with market normalization delayed until 2027. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged to a four-month high of $108.59 per barrel, while US diesel prices topped $6 per gallon for the first time ever, according to GasBuddy. RBC Capital Markets Global Head of Commodity Strategy Helima Croft warned Brent could breach $120 per barrel following the Houthi capture of Yemen’s Mokha port. Additionally, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that soaring energy costs are destroying Europe’s industrial competitiveness against the US and China.
Russia & CIS
Russia’s oil export revenues increased by $370 million in August, reaching higher financial yields despite export volumes falling by 410,000 barrels per day, according to the latest IEA report. Simultaneously, OPEC+ member production dropped by 1.46 million barrels per day in August, falling 7.26 million barrels per day below target levels. In OECD nations, commercial oil inventories rose by 30.7 million barrels. On domestic energy infrastructure, Russia’s Ministry of Energy proposed constructing AI data centers in Siberia to balance regional grid loads, while European natural gas spot prices on Germany’s THE hub reached $1,009 per 1,000 cubic meters.
Armenia
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Armenia will pursue energy diversification, stating he does not consider Russian natural gas cheap. Pashinyan emphasized that Armenia pays among the highest gas tariffs in the region and addressed potential future price adjustments. News.am reported that Germany’s energy crisis has cost €50 billion since 2022, underscoring systemic vulnerabilities across European energy importers. Despite global logistics strains, Brent crude reaching $108.59, and regional tariff debates, Armenia’s retail fuel prices remain stable under long-term bilateral agreements within the EAEU, protecting consumers from volatile international market price assessments.