Brent crude surged past ninety-eight dollars per barrel as Russian maritime exports recorded a sharp monthly decline. Simultaneously, geopolitical alignments shifted as Uzbekistan scaled back its nuclear cooperation with Russia while fuel shortages intensified across Russian regional provinces.
Global market
Congo’s Djeno crude premium soared to a record $20 per barrel over ICE Brent as Chinese import demand rebounds. This marks a jump from a $15 premium two weeks ago, traders told Bloomberg. In Asia, high crude and LNG prices compressed marketing margins for distributors. India-based brokerage Equirus reported that retail fuel marketing margins have turned negative, expected to soften September LNG imports. Concurrently, China has paused approvals for new battery storage plants due to overcapacity concerns, while India rushed rail deliveries as coal stockpiles fell below 25% at 53 power plants amid rising El Nino-driven demand.
Russia & CIS
Uzbekistan is scaling back its nuclear energy cooperation with Russia, as President Shavkat Mirziyoyev reviews a June agreement with Russian leader Vladimir Putin for Rosatom to build the country’s first reactors. In the petroleum market, Brent crude oil futures breached $98.04 per barrel for the first time since late July. This rally coincides with a 12% month-on-month drop in Russian August crude exports to 3.837 million barrels per day amid Black Sea port attacks and lower shipments to India. Domestically, severe regional fuel shortages forced authorities in North Ossetia to limit sales to 20 liters for transit vehicles and 50 liters for residents, while volunteers are managing gas station queues in Arkhangelsk.
Armenia
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the entire world is paying the bill for the ongoing regional energy crisis, stating that extreme oil and diesel price spikes have cost US citizens $100 billion, news.am reported. Concurrently, the Armenian capital is bracing for a housing squeeze, with local news outlets reporting that Armenia is preparing for a new wave of Russian emigrants, making Yerevan rentals scarce. Despite these adjacent regional crises, Armenia’s domestic fuel markets remain insulated. Under EAEU trade treaties, Armenia imports duty-free Russian gas and petroleum products at long-term fixed tariffs, shielding local retail consumers from the volatile price swings recorded by international market price assessments.