A Houthi missile strike on a major Saudi Arabian refinery and Iran’s plans to control a new shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened global supply risks. Oil prices surged following the escalations, prompting warnings from investment banks that crude benchmarks could soon breach triple digits.
Global market
Yemeni Houthis hit Saudi Aramco’s 400,000-barrel-per-day Jizan refinery in southwestern Saudi Arabia on Monday, threatening a major Red Sea hub. Simultaneously, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, announced plans to sign an agreement with Oman to establish a new restricted shipping corridor under Tehran’s control in the Strait of Hormuz. Following these shocks, Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, warned that Brent could hit $120 per barrel if shipping disruptions broaden. Already, India’s average crude import price has topped $101.07 per barrel, exceeding the $100 threshold for the first time since May.
Russia & CIS
Russia’s Federal Security Service detained Major General Sergei Malkov, former deputy chief of the Moscow Region police, and Igor Martyshov, board chairman of PJSC EuroTrans, in a major fuel embezzlement case. The high-profile arrests triggered a 6% drop in EuroTrans shares on the Moscow Exchange. In other developments, the Zaporizhzhia NPP has operated on backup diesel generators for 19 consecutive days due to a complete lack of external power supply, communications director Evgeniya Yashina confirmed. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated during an address at MGIMO that Europe’s voluntary rejection of Russian gas is equivalent to committing economic “hara-kiri”.
Armenia
Armenia’s regional energy security faces fresh shipping and geopolitical turbulence as the US-Iran conflict escalates in adjacent waters, news.am reported. Citing market projections from Bloomberg, local analysts warned that continuing hostilities near Kharg Island could pressure domestic prices. This risk is highlighted as Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized US threats to attack commercial tankers. Despite these regional security threats, Armenia’s retail petrol, diesel, and gas prices remain stable. Under EAEU trade agreements, Armenia continues to import duty-free Russian gas at fixed rates, protecting consumers from price spikes recorded by international market price assessments.