European natural gas futures have surged past 800 dollars per thousand cubic meters for the first time in five months as German storage levels hit historic lows. Meanwhile, crude prices are heading for their second straight weekly gain on escalating geopolitical risks, and the Zaporizhzhia NPP remains entirely cut off from external power.
Global market
Brent crude futures settled at 93.50 dollars per barrel while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at 86.43 dollars per barrel, placing both benchmarks on course for a second consecutive weekly gain. This price rally is underpinned by dimming peace prospects in the Middle East, US sanctions threats against Iran, and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. However, global demand is set to receive a boost as China’s crude oil imports are projected to rebound by 1.2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, potentially reaching 9.9 million barrels daily as refiners hunt for new supply, according to analysts at Rystad Energy, Energy Aspects, and FGE NexantECA.
Concurrently, Australia is poised to replicate the US shale gas boom, with first gas from the Beetaloo shale basin in the Northern Territory scheduled to flow next month at an initial volume of 37 million cubic meters. The basin is estimated to hold 500 trillion cubic feet of gas. These upstream additions arrive as S&P Global Energy projects a long-term 20 percent reduction in European refining capacity and a 7 percent drop in US refining capacity by 2035, even as high consumer fuel demand persists.
Russia & CIS
European natural gas prices spiked dramatically, with Dutch TTF hub futures exceeding 800 dollars per thousand cubic meters, reaching a peak of 800.8 dollars. This five-month high is driven by Middle Eastern LNG supply uncertainties and a severe drop in German gas storage, which has fallen to a historic low of 49 percent compared to 67 percent during the same period in 2025, according to INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann. Simultaneously, domestic energy inflation has hit neighboring countries, with Moldova’s regulator hiking consumer gas tariffs by 41 percent to 1.19 dollars per cubic meter.
The regional grid remains under intense strain as the Zaporizhzhia NPP has been without external power for over 24 hours after its primary supply line was damaged on Ukrainian-controlled territory, with no timeline for repairs, according to Zaporizhzhia NPP Communications Director Evgeniya Yashina. In response to persistent security threats in Energodar, Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev warned that the ongoing attacks “border on genocide”. Additionally, state-run utility Krymenergo announced targeted power outages across Crimea due to grid constraints, while Russian energy holding En+ Group increased its first-half capital expenditure by 37.2 percent to 354 million dollars as electricity generation grew by 5.1 percent.
Armenia
Armenia’s diplomatic and economic ties with Russia are entering a transition period as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan plans to recall Ambassador to Russia Gurgen Arsenyan, according to reports from the Armenian newspaper Zhoghovurd. The diplomatic adjustment comes as Armenia navigates severe regional logistics and energy disruptions, including the Zaporizhzhia NPP power failure and targeted electricity blackouts across Crimea.
To maintain economic stability amid these broader Eurasian transport bottlenecks, Yerevan continues to rely on its integration within the EAEU. Bilateral agreements with Moscow secure uninterrupted, duty-free imports of Russian natural gas and petroleum products at stable, non-market rates. This administrative shield successfully insulates Armenian businesses and consumers from global spot market shocks—such as European TTF natural gas prices climbing past 800 dollars per thousand cubic meters and Brent crude rising to 93.50 dollars per barrel. This protective framework keeps Armenia’s retail tariffs stable and completely independent of fluctuating international market price assessments.
📊 I can chart European gas price trends alongside German storage levels to help you visualize the compounding effects of the EU’s heating-season storage deficit.