The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced global shipping onto longer routes around Africa, triggering a dramatic surge in Somali piracy. Meanwhile, US drilling activity reached a new annual peak as global oil and European natural gas prices both ticked upward.
Global market
The military conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have forced hundreds of commercial vessels onto longer routes around Africa, triggering a dramatic surge in Somali piracy. Between April and July 2026, Somali pirates staged their largest attacks in years, hijacking the oil tankers MT Honour 25, MT Eureka, and MT Asana in the Gulf of Aden and off the coast of Puntland. This logistical disruption pushed Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) up by 1% to USD 4,339 per 40ft container, with Shanghai-to-New York spot rates climbing 10% to USD 8,706. Additionally, Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) surged 6% to a six-week high of USD 1,028 on August 13. Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand noted that average long-term freight rates from the Far East to the US West Coast and US East Coast have jumped 41% and 40% respectively since late February.
The supply constraints have caused global oil and European natural gas prices to rise by 1%, a trend further exacerbated after Yemen’s Houthi movement launched drone strikes against Saudi Aramco’s oil infrastructure in Najran. In response to elevated prices, US drillers increased their active rig count to 593 units—up 54 from last year—including 455 active oil rigs and 128 gas rigs, according to weekly Baker Hughes data. However, onshore energy projects face delays; Energy Transfer subsidiary Transwestern Pipeline postponed the in-service date of its Green Chile Project pipeline from August 15 to February 1, 2027, stalling Oracle’s USD 165 billion Project Jupiter data center development in New Mexico. Looking ahead, Rystad Energy warned that even an exceptionally strong El Nino event would fail to ease Europe’s winter gas market unless temperatures average at least 2 degrees Celsius above historical norms.
Russia & CIS
Russian wholesale fuel markets showed signs of modest stabilization, with gasoline and diesel benchmark prices on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) decreasing by approximately 1% over the week as government market-cooling measures took effect. Amid these regulatory efforts, the Russian government officially approved the inclusion of the state-owned enterprise Mosavtogaz into the national privatization plan for 2026–2028. On the security front, Ukrainian forces launched a missile strike against an industrial enterprise in the Samara region, though safety-related flight restrictions at Kazan and Nizhny Novgorod airports were subsequently lifted on Saturday morning.
On the geopolitical stage, Thailand formally requested Russia’s diplomatic support to accelerate negotiations for a free trade agreement with the EAEU during a joint commission meeting. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s hardening stance against Moscow has placed Kazakhstan in an increasingly delicate position, as the central Asian state attempts to balance its crucial economic ties with Russia against the threat of secondary Western sanctions.
Armenia
While Armenia’s internal energy infrastructure reported no major disruptions, the landlocked republic remains highly exposed to the escalating global logistics and transit crisis, as the 10% spike in Transpacific spot rates and the 6% rise in Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index to USD 1,028 due to the Middle East conflict and Somali piracy directly inflate transportation and import costs for Armenian businesses. Furthermore, while the Houthi drone strikes on Saudi Aramco’s Najran infrastructure continue to push global oil and European gas benchmarks up by 1%, Armenia’s domestic fuel prices are shielded from immediate shock.
This stability is primarily secured through Armenia’s active integration within the EAEU. Thailand’s official request for a free trade agreement with the EAEU highlights the growing international reach of the bloc, offering Armenia a pathway to expand its commerce into Southeast Asian markets. Crucially, Armenia’s long-term energy agreements with Russia within the EAEU framework leverage domestic price stability, ensuring tariff-exempt imports of natural gas and petroleum products. These agreements insulate local consumers from spot-market spikes governed by volatile international market price assessments.
⚓ I can prepare a comprehensive transport route analysis tracking how the Cape of Good Hope transit shift is inflating retail import costs across landlocked nations like Armenia.