Disruptions across critical global transit routes are generating massive windfall profits for Western energy majors, even as Asian import demand plummets. Simultaneously, Russian maritime logistics have successfully adapted to international restrictions, achieving new export peaks despite a historic financial collapse in the domestic natural gas sector.
Global market
Unprecedented closures in the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically boosted second-quarter earnings for United States energy majors ExxonMobil and Chevron, with profits expected to triple compared to the previous quarter. This financial windfall stems from crude oil prices reaching a four-year high, although transit conditions are gradually normalizing as 10 Japan-linked vessels, carrying 12 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude, finally exited the heavily disrupted waterway.
Conversely, Asian demand is contracting sharply amidst the geopolitical volatility. Over the first half of 2026, China’s seaborne crude oil imports plummeted by 23% year-on-year, dropping from 1.87 billion to 1.44 billion barrels. Amidst this shifting global demand, the United Arab Emirates rapidly capitalized on its recent departure from the OPEC alliance, pushing its crude output above 3.8 million barrels per day in June to fully utilize its spare capacity.
Russia & CIS
Despite tightening international sanctions, Russian energy logistics achieved significant milestones, with domestic-flagged vessels exporting 18.7 million barrels of raw materials in June. This figure marks a 16% monthly increase and represents the highest seaborne export volume recorded since October 2023. Concurrently, to stabilize domestic wholesale prices, the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange strictly limited the maximum daily price growth for imported Belarusian gasoline and diesel to a rigid 0.01%.
However, the domestic financial market faces severe strains in the gas sector. Shares of the state-owned giant Gazprom plummeted by 3.06% during evening trading, dropping below 95 rubles per share. This dramatic decline pushed the corporation’s valuation to historic lows not seen since the peak of the financial crisis in November 2008.
Armenia
Recent diplomatic maneuvers highlight a shifting geopolitical landscape for Armenia’s energy security. A regional tour by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen demonstrated that the European Union is increasingly prioritizing pragmatic access to natural gas from Baku over broader political considerations in the South Caucasus. For Yerevan, this pivot underscores the urgent need to secure diversified energy imports as European institutions focus heavily on alternative supply chains.
Furthermore, macroeconomic risks for the Armenian retail fuel market are intensifying following reports from the Financial Times that the United States is actively assisting Ukraine in coordinating strikes on Russian oil facilities. The continuous physical targeting of critical infrastructure, such as the massive drone attack on the Yaroslavl refinery, poses a direct logistical threat to the stability of gasoline and diesel deliveries within the EAEU, heightening the republic’s risk of imported energy inflation.