Global energy markets reacted sharply as the United States and Iran moved toward a memorandum of understanding to end their four-month conflict. Hopes for the restoration of full traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent benchmark prices to their lowest levels since March.
Global market
International market price assessments showed Brent crude falling 7.00% to $87.08 per barrel, while the US marker WTI retreated 3.60% to $84.55. The downturn followed statements by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that a final peace text has been reached through intense mediation. While Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mentioned that an “Islamabad memorandum of understanding” has never been closer, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that current flows through the Strait of Hormuz have already increased to 7m barrels per day, representing half of pre-war volumes.
The Asian Development Bank reported that 15 countries have officially requested a combined $4bn in emergency loans to grapple with severe shortages. Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre challenged the EU to allow Arctic drilling in the Barents Sea as a democratic alternative to Middle Eastern supplies. Concurrently, the Philippines has declared a national energy emergency and shifted to purchasing Russian oil to stabilize domestic costs.
Russia & CIS
Ukraine’s intensified campaign of “deep strikes” is on track to exceed 800 attacks on Russian refineries, ports, and oil depots this year. Analysts from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated that Russian fossil-fuel export revenues in early 2026 were 34% lower than expected levels based on international crude prices. To bypass the blockade at Hormuz, Iraq has launched a trucking operation to move 650,000 tonnes of oil per month across Syria to the Mediterranean terminal at Baniyas.
Ukraine is also moving its industrial heartland from the frontline city of Kramatorsk to a new industrial park in Perechyn, involving the relocation of over 3,500 skilled workers. In Syria, the new administration is exulting in vital cash flows from Iraqi oil transit fees, generating between $1m and $2m in daily revenue.
Armenia
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan secured a renewed mandate as his Civil Contract party won nearly 50% of the vote in a general election monitored by the OSCE. During the campaign, Russian President Vladimir Putin reminded the electorate that Russia remains the provider of cheap gas to the republic and emphasized the importance of its continued membership in the EAEU.
The election result is expected to facilitate the completion of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRPP), an American-backed trade corridor intended to enhance regional energy security. Armenia intends to maintain its EAEU participation while pursuing closer economic ties with the West and finalizing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan to open closed borders.